779 FXUS64 KAMA 272030 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 230 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night... Not much happening in the short term. Tonight we have a weak system moving down across the Four Corners under mostly northerly flow, and most of the moisture looks to remain displaced west of the Panhandles in Eastern New Mexico. That being said, there's still the possibility that some light snow might manage to make it to the northwest Panhandles, mainly between 9PM and 3AM. It will still be another cold morning on Friday with lows in the teens to lower 20s. But a transition to more milder temperatures will pick up on Friday as high pressure begins to build over the Panhandles from the west. Highs will manage to creep up into the upper 40s to lower 50s as skies will be mostly clear. Winds may be a bit breezy 10-15 mph out of the west northwest, before becoming more light and variable overnight. While the overnight lows will certainly not be on the warm side, they will be transitioning warmer in general. Expect lows to be in the 20s, with isolated high teens in some of the colder spots. Weber && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night... A quiet start to the extended forecast will quickly transition to a more active pattern by early next week. Above average high temperatures are expected to prevail this weekend before a strong cold front pushes south across the Plains in the middle of next week. Behind the front, cooler than average temperatures are expected along with possible chances for precipitation. At the beginning of the extended, a upper level trough is expected over the eastern CONUS and a H500 low should be located over the eastern Pacific. With H500 high pressure sitting between these two features, northwest flow aloft is anticipated across the Southern High Plains through Sunday. The mid level low will propagate east through the day Saturday and will continue to trek east on Sunday. The low pressure system, along with the better moisture, is expected to remain south of the CWA, so no precipitation is expected with this system. As the low progresses towards the Gulf, northwest to west flow aloft will return to the Panhandles on Monday. Temperatures during this period are expected to be above average for late January, with current high temperatures mainly in the 60s. Model guidance deviates after the upper level low passes south of the area. What model guidance agrees on is an upper level trough begins to dig over the western CONUS on Tuesday. The speed at which the trough propagates east and how far south the trough digs varies by model. Model consensus is that a cold front will push south across the Plains in the middle of the week and will bring much cooler temperatures to the Panhandles. The surface pressure gradient behind the front looks to be strong, but due to timing discrepancies between model guidance, have not increased winds on Tuesday night/Wednesday with this forecast package. Sufficient moisture behind the front looks to be enough to generate precipitation out ahead of the upper level wave. Looking at forecast soundings, it appears that any precipitation that falls would likely be snow and would be relatively light. Have opted to keep NBM temperatures/PoPs through the long term due to variability in deterministic and ensemble guidance. Model trends at the end of the extended will need to be monitored, as some models suggest the colder temperatures may stick around for a few days after the frontal passage. Muscha/Weber && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS... VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Cigs will range from 7kft-25kft with little to no visibility restriction. Winds will range from 10-15kts out of the north. Right now the only two concerns are: light snow, possibly in KDHT are from 03-09z, but that's a very low probability, and the possibility of freezing fog, mainly for the KAMA area. Confidence is very low for both sites, and therefore the TAFS remain VFR and fairly quiet. We will continue to monitor for that possibility and update the TAF sites as needed. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 20 49 24 63 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 16 52 18 63 17 / 5 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 15 50 21 62 21 / 20 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 21 53 24 65 23 / 5 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 17 50 20 62 18 / 0 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 17 48 20 63 19 / 0 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 22 50 27 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 12 49 17 62 17 / 10 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 17 53 21 65 19 / 5 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 17 48 20 62 19 / 0 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 17 53 20 66 20 / 5 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 20 49 26 64 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 20 52 24 67 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 21 52 23 66 24 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 89/5/89