500 FXUS65 KABQ 251724 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1024 AM MST Tue Jan 25 2022 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE High level clouds will continue to move in from the north and will lower with top-down moistening. A backdoor cold front will move into northeast NM late this afternoon, with snow to follow this evening. Deteriorating conditions are expected across much of northern and central NM this evening and overnight. Snow will expand across much of northern NM with a moderate to heavy band of snow possible from near KLVS eastward to the Texas border. The backdoor cold front will continue to slide south and west as well, pushing through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening, with gusts near 40-45kt at KABQ and 35-40kt at KSAF. A Aviation Weather Warning will be needed for the Albuquerque Sunport. Winds will decrease around or shortly after sunrise Wednesday. Snow will gradually diminish through the morning hours. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MST Tue Jan 25 2022... .SYNOPSIS... A quick hitting winter storm will bring accumulating snow to much of northern and eastern New Mexico tonight into Wednesday morning. Strong east canyon winds will develop along and near I-40 west of Tijeras Canyon. Heaviest snow amounts are forecast over the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains eastward to the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to Springer. Another, weaker storm, is forecast to bring light snow to portions of northern and eastern NM Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Dry weather along with warmer temperatures return Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... The combination of an upper low and a backdoor cold front will impact the area later today through mid day Wednesday, with increasing cloud cover, colder temperatures and a round of snow. The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low taking shape over the Great Basin and dropping south toward AZ. For today, expect increasing cloud cover in advance of the low and colder temperatures most areas. Impacts will ramp-up overnight as the backdoor front makes westward progress beyond the central mountain chain and the upper low takes an eastward turn into western NM. This will be a quick-hitting system, but solid upslope flow and a favorable track of the upper low will bring a decent round of moderate snow to a good chunk of central and northern NM. Based on our latest forecast snow amounts, the previously issued Winter Storm Watch will be upgraded to a warning for the northeast highlands and eastern San Miguel County, with the remainder of the watch converted into an advisory. Will also add a few more zones to a Winter Weather Advisory, including the Jemez Mountains, Sandia/Manzano Mountains (mainly due to travel considerations), the northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, the central highlands and Guadalupe Co. Impacts will peak overnight and gradually diminish after rush hour Wednesday morning. Will also issue a Wind Advisory for the middle RGV for gusty east canyon winds, forecast to develop this evening and continue beyond midnight. The Albuquerque Metro has a decent shot at seeing some snow late tonight into Wednesday morning, but accumulation will likely be a half inch or less. Wednesday will be much colder behind the departing upper low, with highs below to well below normal. The eastern plains will be cloudy most of the day, with highs forecast 15-25 degrees below normal. LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A high amplitude ridge of high pressure along the west coast will allow another cold short-wave trough to drop due south through the Northern and Central Rockies on Thursday. Models indicating that this feature will have less in the way of moisture to work with, resulting in less snow accumulation when compared to tonight's system. GFS solution is the outlier with most model forecasts on the lighter side. An inch or two of accumulation most likely from the northeast highlands westward to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and possibly along the Continental Divide between Grants and Gallup late-day Thursday. A strong ridge of high pressure remains on track to move overhead Friday. High temperatures will trend back up above seasonal averages. The high remains over NM into Saturday before a moisture starved closed low is forecast to bring scattered clouds and a slight chance for showers to southern Catron and southern Socorro counties Sunday. Weather prediction models agree that high pressure returns for early next week. Global forecast models remain in good agreement that a 200 kt (230 mph) East Asian Jet (EAJ) will act to end the omega blocking pattern in the Gulf of AK toward the middle of next week and beyond. While the models continue to split the EAJ/Polar Jet along the British Columbia coastline, the southern portion of the split becomes the dominant feature. This would act to help strengthen any troughs/storm systems that dig southward into the Southwest U.S. toward the first of February. 11/33 && .FIRE WEATHER... The combination of an upper low and a backdoor cold front will bring cloudy and colder conditions through Wednesday, with good chances for wetting precipitation to much of northern NM. Another trough/low and backdoor cold front combo will impact our area Thursday through Thursday night, but with lower chances for wetting precipitation. Expect a warming trend Friday into Saturday as an amplified upper level ridge moves southeast across the Intermountain West. A weak Pacific low may impact the area Sunday with increased winds and very low chances for wetting precipitation. A stronger trough/low is forecast to make eastward progress toward NM early next week and will initially impact our area with stronger winds followed by more chances for wetting precipitation. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Wednesday for the following zones... NMZ211>215-221-223-228-231-233. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Wednesday for the following zones... NMZ229-232. Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM MST Wednesday for the following zones... NMZ219. && $$