799 FXUS61 KLWX 241427 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 927 AM EST Mon Jan 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push south of the area this morning. An Arctic front will cross the area Tuesday. Arctic high pressure will settle overhead for the middle portion of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will settle over the Carolinas into the western Atlantic while a cold front approaches from the northwest. A southerly flow between these systems will allow for a somewhat milder afternoon, despite the chilly start. However, sunshine will give way to high and mid-level clouds this afternoon for most areas as an upper-level disturbance in the northern stream of the jet moves overhead. Next clipper system will move across the region tonight. As opposed to the one yesterday evening, this one will have better low level moisture to work with, but will have lower SLRs and no instability to work with. In addition, track of sfc low and vort max will be to the north suggesting lift will be weaker. Despite the warmer thermal profiles, there should be enough moisture combined with an upslope flow to bring accumulating snow to locations along/west of the Allegheny Front. Will continue with the Winter Weather Advisory for Garrett and western Grant Counties, where the moisture profiles are progged to be deepest. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Arctic front crosses the area Tue morning with strong CAA developing late in the day and through the night on brisk NW winds. Very cold wind chills are expected Wed with readings expected in the teens all day. Arctic high pressure settles overhead Thu morning. Expecting lows Thu morning to be a few degs colder than this past Saturday given high pressure will be settling overhead this time as opposed to the St. Lawrence River Valley this past Saturday. Used the NBM 25th percentile for lows which brings sub-zero temperatures to many areas west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wind Chill Advisories or Warnings will likely be needed for these areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday night into Thursday morning may produce some of the coldest temperatures of the season with a high pressure directly overhead in place, leaving lights winds. Conditions will remain dry and mostly clear with the high pressure remaining overhead for the majority of Thursday before departing offshore late Thursday night. Deepening trough will continue to move towards the area Thursday night, with clouds increasing late Thursday into early Friday. With the latest guidance, there could be a period of light snow to a wintry mix, should the timing stay consistent. The overall system looks fairly weak in nature for now, still keeping low end PoPs to account for any potential moisture that makes over the mountains for the morning commute. A coastal low will begin to meander up the southeast coastline for the end of the workweek into the weekend. Should this low favor a NW trend over the next several days, we may start to see a shift in favorable snowfall. For now, that does not look likely but will keep lower PoPs across the far eastern areas to account for a NW trend. The overall pattern is not as favorable for snowfall as a lack of blocking over the Northern Atlantic region does not allow for a favorable phasing pattern to occur like we had a few weeks ago. With a tightening gradient from the deep upper trough and the coastal low in place on Saturday into Sunday, do expect wind fields to be fairly strong during the day. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected for the period as high pressure returns into the later half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions through tonight with increasing high and mid- level clouds this afternoon/tonight. Arctic front will cross the area Tue morning with strong CAA on brisk NW winds gusting 20-25 kt through Wed. VFR conditions expected Thursday and Friday with maybe some isolated lower ceilings Friday with any wintry precipitation that makes to the terminals. Northwesterly winds should stay relatively calm for the period. && .MARINE... Light winds through this afternoon will increase tonight out of the south before diminishing again Tue morning. Winds strengthen again Tue afternoon behind an Arctic front and remain brisk through Wed evening. Winds should remain below SCA criteria Thursday into Friday with a disturbance entering from the west. High-end SCA possible Saturday into Sunday with the possibility of even gale-force winds between the two departing systems. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ001. VA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ501. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530-531-539. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...BJL/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...BJL/LFR/ADM MARINE...BJL/LFR/ADM