670 FXUS63 KFGF 240346 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 946 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Sfc low looks to be just west of Wahpeton moving southeast. NW wind shift and a jump to 34 degrees in Oakes but colder air not far behind moving back into Jamestown/Cooperstown. Warmer air not making into the valley and will see a switch to north wind next few hours. How windy overnight/Mon AM. I will continue to highlight pockets of potential blowing snow impacts in weather graphics thru Mon AM and went on high end of guidance on winds and wind gusts with potential wind gusts 32-39 mph in E ND/RRV. These may be high but past few events higher seems to win. Without falling snow will need sustained winds more in the 35+ mph range for advisory conditions. Dont think we will see that, with low level blowing across the road seems the most likely outcome. UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 No changes from the last update an hour ago... snow area in NW MN moving southeast. Got a report of near 2 inches of snow west of Warroad on the ridge. This area of snow less defined on radar due to its location. But snow in this area extends back to Winnipeg and moving southeast. Otherwise in E ND got quick moving snow bands that will likely be exiting the fcst area by 03z. Brief warming to 32F will make it into far SW fcst area. Any threat for fzra will remain SW of the fcst area UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Bands of snow moving quickly southeast across the area producing quick reductions in visibility and a few tenths of new snow. Low pressure looks to be south of Devils Lake moving southeast. South winds ahead of it and winds turning northwest behind it over the Devils Lake/Cando area. Warm surge to around 32 to Harvey and Carrington and will briefly visit our SW fcst area this evening. Still expecting a period of north-northwest winds 12 to 25 kts overnight into Monday morning. Some blowing snow expected but without falling snow low visibilities should be spotty. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 A fast moving clipper is continuing to move across the area early this evening, and redevelopment of an area of snow is expected later tonight. Winds are expected to pick up this evening in the Devils Lake Basin to the North Dakota/Minnesota state line, but will only see gusts up to 30 MPH for a few hours out of the night. During this time however, patchy areas of blowing snow are possible. This could reduce visibility and cause travel impacts. Check road conditions and slow down if you have plans to travel this evening and early tomorrow morning. Temperatures tonight will cool into the teens and single digits below zero for lows, with wind chills in the -30 range lasting throughout the day Monday. Monday will overall be quiet, with isolated chances for blowing snow possible. Not much to write home about in terms of weather, but wind chills will be a concern throughout the day. Make sure you bundle up if heading outside. High temperatures will be in the single digits above and below zero. Arctic air is on tap for Monday night into Tuesday morning, as air temperatures drop into the 20s below zero, with lowest wind chills approaching -45 Tuesday morning. These wind chills are dangerous, and can cause frostbite in minutes so make sure to take appropriate precautions. Otherwise, no impactful weather is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Long range period impacts includes ongoing arctic air/dangerous wind chills through Wednesday morning followed by a period of potentially windy conditions and blowing snow Wednesday morning into Wednesday night. Progressive northwest flow eventually transitions to more of a westerly flow as the large scale upper low near Hudson Bay breaks down. This results in coldest arctic airmass lingering through Tuesday night/Wed morning. There is then a general "moderation" of the pattern with rising heights aloft and remaining further north at least late this week into the weekend, though we will still see variable day to day trends due to progressive mid level waves and frontal passages. During these periods ensembles favor dry conditions, though there is a signal for light snowfall Wednesday into Wednesday night with a trough dropping south over our CWA out of Canada, with synoptic forcing transitioning quickly over our area and mesoscale signals weak. Currently there are also mixed signals between ensemble systems regarding potential for measurable snowfall, but there is at least some signal for a dusting or more of snow particularly in MN from the NBM4.1. Of more significance with this system is the potential for a signal for a strong winds (potentially within advisory criteria). Guidance shows good agreement on a strong southwest oriented 40-50kt 925MB jet Wednesday morning followed by yet another brief surge of CAA as a northwest LLJ jet (weaker) Wednesday afternoon-evening moves into the region. Temperatures do quickly moderate due to the strong southwest flow with may limit blowing snow potential somewhat as they increase to near or above freezing in WAA. The strong wind signal is picked up in ensembles (as highlighted by ECMWF EFI and NAEFS R-Climate percentiles), and NBM wind probs (sustained winds in the 90th percentile 30-35 mph in our west). Blowing snow potential is complicated by not knowing how snow pack will respond at that point (assuming no new falling snow), and with near freezing temps during the day Wednesday. Earlier timing of winds increasing could result in near whiteout or even ground blizzard conditions as temperatures would be initially below zero considering the potential magnitude of winds. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022 Bands of light snow moving through thru this evening causing variable visibility...Clearing will begin to work south later tonight into Monday AM as winds turn north-northwest and gust to 25-30 kts in the RRV and E ND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Riddle