778 FXUS62 KMHX 231746 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1246 PM EST Sun Jan 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area through Monday. A cold front will push through the area Tuesday night with high pressure building back into the area Wednesday and Thursday. A low pressure system may impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1010 AM Sun...Temperatures now rising above the freezing mark across inland areas with plenty of sun. Forecast on track early this morning with no major changes needed. Prev disc...High pressure will continue to build into the area today with mainly sunny skies and chilly temperatures. Temps will start out in the teens and 20s most areas and only warm into the mid 40s this afternoon which will allow for additional melting of snow and ice. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...High pressure remains in control tonight with generally clear skies. Temps will fall quickly after sunset with lows expected in the low to mid 20s inland to low to mid 30s along the OBX. The sun should allow most roads to dry out today so black ice not much of a concern on primary roads tonight but could see some refreezing on untreated secondary or tertiary roads. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Sun... High pressure remains over the area on Monday before sliding off to the east on Tuesday. Highs on Monday remain below normal with highs reaching the mid 40s to near 50, while highs Tuesday finally get back into the 50s across the region. Lows Monday night get into the upper 20s outside of coastal locations with lows in the 30s expected Tuesday night. Low pressure is forecast to track eastwards across the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday then off the Florida Coast early Wednesday morning as a cold front tracks southwards across the Mid-Atlantic. This in turn keeps the low suppressed to the south of the region. Latest GFS has come more into line with this thinking and with model agreement from the CMC and ECMWF on this solution have continued to lower PoP's across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday keeping the highest PoPS across the coastal waters. Thermal profiles from the GFS/ECMWF/CMC are all a bit to warm for frozen precip and will keep wx all rain at this time. High pressure then builds in along the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday afternoon and Thursday keeping things dry and temperatures cooler than normal into the end of the week. Temps will continue to remain in the mid to upper 40s during the day while getting into the 20s to low 30s each night into Friday. As in the previous discussion there remains a fair amount of uncertainty over the weekend with potential for another significant low pressure system to impact the area. Another period for strong winds and ptype concerns possible, depending on where the low tracks. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18Z Mon/... As of 1245 PM Sun...High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Clear skies prevail this afternoon with strong subsidence aloft, and this trend will continue through the overnight hours. A slight increase in mid and high level clouds is expected after midnight as a weak shortwave passes to the north. Only potential wrinkle in the forecast is again the potential for very light fog, mainly over snow-covered locales where the most efficient cooling is expected and therefore lower Tds are expected. Given very few vis restrictions last night, opted to keep such a mention out of the TAFs this cycle. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 415 AM Sun...High pressure moves off the coast on Monday with a cold front progged to track southwards across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. This in turn keeps the previously mentioned low pressure system suppressed to the south. Even with the cold frontal passage conditions are now forecast to remain VFR through the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 300 PM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build into the waters through the short term. NW winds around 15 kt or less will continue this morning with seas around 6-8 ft north and central waters and 2-6 ft south. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft north of Oregon Inlet and south of Ocracoke Inlet around mid day today but up to 6 ft continues across the central waters. A weak mid-level disturbance will pass to the north tonight which will serve to tighten pressure gradients with winds backing to W to SW around 10-20 kt. Seas build slightly tonight in response to strengthening winds keeping up to 6-7 ft across the central waters into Monday morning but guidance shows northern and southern waters remaining below 6 ft. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 415 AM Sun...High pressure slowly shifts eastwards and off the coast on Monday as a cold front approaches from the north on Tuesday. This will allow W/NW 10-15 kt winds early Mon to back Monday night and Tuesday morning to a W/SW direction while lowering down to 5-10 knots. Seas will remain around 4-6 feet across much of the offshore waters during this timeframe. A cold front will then progress southwards and a surge of N'RLY winds will quickly follow as CAA increases across the offshore waters Wednesday morning. Northerly winds will increase to 15-25 kt Wed with seas building to 4-7 ft. High pressure then builds back in behind this departing front Wednesday night into Thursday allowing winds and seas to ease with winds lowering down to 5-10 kt and seas subsiding to 2-5 ft with these conditions fcst through the end of the week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/MS SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM... AVIATION...MS/RCF MARINE...SK/RCF