667 FXUS64 KMAF 221758 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1158 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Expansive cloud cover has developed across most of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and will continue developing west- northwestward through the remainder of the afternoon. Thus, have made a quick forecast update to account for the clouds, as well as to lower high temperatures this afternoon, especially across the Permian Basin and into Lea county where insolation will be greatly limited. No precipitation is expected, and the remainder of the forecast looks to be on track. Updated products have been sent. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 A bit of a challenging aviation forecast as MVFR ceilings have developed well ahead of schedule across portions of the region, impacting MAF at issuance with the leading edge of cloud cover moving into HOB, INK, and FST. Expect MVFR ceilings to continue expanding through this evening, impacting all terminals and persisting thereafter through the end of the period. Winds will remain under 12kt, shifting from the east to southeast, becoming light and somewhat variable tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Cold temperatures will remain for the entire forecast area the next 36 hrs with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs generally in the 40s and 50s with a cooling trend out west slated for Sunday. Pattern is in a shifting state of weak ridging ahead of a closed upper-low out over AZ. The closed low will meander today before scooting eastward on Sunday through the end of the forecast period. Limited ascent will be offered prior to Sunday evening, so the only area that might see any precip will the far western zones with an isolated shower or even snow shower in the highest confines of the Guadalupes. Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur this afternoon with a developing nocturnal stratus Sat PM into Sunday AM thanks to a prominent low- level jet developing. Elevated northeasterly gap winds in the Guadalupes will occur today, but will remain below high wind criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 240 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022 Sunday night, the upper trough will be over northern Chihuahua. Large-scale ascent ahead of this system will result in a chance of showers increasing west to east overnight. Forecast soundings show wetbulbs riding the 0C isotherm to around 800mb, suggesting -RASN at times. In the far north and over the mountains, precipitation may change over to all -SN at times. Also, we'd expect more of a changeover as the core passes through. However, given meager QPF under 1/10th of an inch, snow ratios of 5:1 at best, and warm soil temperatures, little to no accumulation is expected. Monday, surface flow shifts to westerly, and downslope warming, clearing skies west-to-east, and increasing thicknesses will yield afternoon highs right around normal, and perhaps the warmest day this forecast. Unfortunately, a cold front arrives Monday night behind the exiting trough, taking temperatures below normal Tuesday afternoon, and even a few degrees cooler Wednesday. Temperatures begin to recover back to near normal Thursday before a secondary front intrudes upon the area Thursday night, shaving a few degrees off highs Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, grids stay dry after Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 48 32 53 33 / 0 0 0 20 Carlsbad 45 26 48 29 / 0 0 10 20 Dryden 45 34 49 34 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Stockton 46 31 49 33 / 0 0 0 30 Guadalupe Pass 36 27 41 32 / 0 0 10 20 Hobbs 43 24 50 28 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 49 19 47 23 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 43 32 52 32 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 44 34 51 33 / 0 0 0 20 Wink 45 30 49 27 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...84