963 FXHW60 PHFO 200117 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 317 PM HST Wed Jan 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Sea breezes will favor interior clouds and isolated showers this afternoon through Friday afternoon. Land breezes will bring clearing overnight. Showers will increase over windward sections of Oahu and Kauai this weekend as a diminishing cold front settles over the western end of the state. && .DISCUSSION... The weak gradient over the area will support a land and sea breeze pattern into Friday afternoon. Interior clouds and isolated showers can be expected during peak heating though the high degree of stability and dry low-level airmass will limit the coverage and intensity of any showers. Land breezes will bring clearing overnight. Light to moderate trades will return late Friday as a weakening cold front settles over the western end of the state bringing windward showers to Kauai on Saturday and Oahu Saturday night. Given that the islands will remain south of a strong zonal pacific jet during this time, little to no change to background stability is expected. As a result, showers should be rather benign and mainly confined to windward and mauka zones overnight and during the morning. Building trades will then usher the remnant frontal moisture axis through remaining islands perhaps supporting a slight uptick in showers over windward portions of Maui and the Big Island on Sunday. Building mid-level ridging immediately downstream of the aforementioned Pacific jet will further increase stability early next week leading continued dry conditions as locally breezy trades take hold by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... Light winds will allow local land and sea breezes to develop through Thursday. Expect overnight land breezes to clear out the low clouds which developed across interior areas today. Land breezes will then give way to sea breezes Thursday afternoon, which will increase cloud cover and trigger a few light showers over island interiors. Expect brief MVFR conditions in showers, if any develop. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... A current west northwest swell will peak early tonight, then lower gradually through Thursday night. A High Surf Advisory is currently posted for most north and west facing shores through tonight. A larger northwest swell is expected to fill in on Friday, peak Friday night, then lower gradually Saturday through Sunday. Surf heights are expected to reach or exceed High Surf Warning criteria during the peak of this swell. Another, but smaller northwest swell is expected to fill in Sunday night, peak on Monday, then lower gradually on into Tuesday. Advisory level surf is expected during the peak of this swell. A small east northeast swell is possible over the weekend, generated by a developing gale low E of the state over the next couple of days. There will also be a slight increase in short period choppy surf for east facing shores over the weekend and on into early next week as light to moderate trade winds return. No other significant swells are expected. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria through Thursday night. The above mentioned large northwest swell will cause seas to exceed SCA levels over exposed waters Friday afternoon through Saturday night. Strengthening trade winds early next week may allow winds to reach SCA levels over the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kona- Kohala-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West- Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Powell MARINE...Burke