937 
FXUS65 KBOU 131015
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022

Colorado will remain under a moderate northwest flow pattern 
today while the ridge axis of high pressure passes over Colorado 
this afternoon. Any cloudiness today will still be the high level
variety. Temperatures will be warmer today as 700mb readings 
climb to around +5C. This will result in readings about 3-5 
degrees warmer on the plains. As the ridge axis passes by this 
evening expect westerly flow to increase. Cross sections showing 
30-40kt of cross barrier flow increasing tonight which may lead to
some gusts up to 50 mph over the higher mountains and exposed 
ridges. 

The next incoming weak system will approach northwest Colorado later 
tonight with a few snow showers developing over the northern 
mountains after midnight. Ahead of the trof there will be another 
wave of mid and high level moisture which will increase cloud cover 
later this afternoon and evening. Clouds will thin again after 
midnight with the exception of the mountains with increase in cloud 
cover. Overnight lows tonight will be warmer given the increased
cloud cover. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022

Models continue to show an upper trough to move in Friday. They 
now show a closed low developing with this feature, which is 
progged to slide southward to Colorado's immediate east through 
Friday night. This is a bit different than yesterday's 00Z models
indicated. The QG Omega fields show upward vertical velocity for 
the CWA through much of Friday now. Decent subsidence moves in 
Friday night, decreasing in strength through the day Saturday. 
There is still a pretty decent cool down due to a cold front the 
upper trough brings with it. Strong northerly winds are progged 
across the plains all day Friday well into Friday night. 

Again, there looks to be decent orographics in the mountains, with 
the moisture being short lived and not very deep however. Expected
snowfall amounts still do not warrant any highlights at this time.
Over the plains, the models now show better moisture and QPF than
they indicated yesterday. For the plains, the highest pops will 
be over the Palmer Ridge. No "likely" pops for the plains this 
forecast package. but higher pops for the western half of the 
plains than yesterday's model runs indicated. 

Will make sure I hit the downsloping winds pretty good over the 
high country on Friday and also the northerly winds over the 
eastern half of the plains. For temperatures, Friday's highs will 
be 8-14 C from today's highs. Saturday's highs will be similar to
Friday's readings.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 231 AM MST Thu Jan 13 2022

VFR with just some thin cirrus this morning. Mid and high level
clouds will increase through this evening ahead of weak upper
system. Surface winds southwest to westerly this morning, becoming
light with a light east to southeast component this afternoon and
early evening. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Entrekin