006 
FXUS65 KFGZ 122020
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
120 PM MST Wed Jan 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected
through Thursday. Gusty northeast winds develop Friday and
Saturday with cooler temperatures on Saturday. Dry and mild
weather continues Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Heights rise today as a ridge begins to build into 
the southwest, with continued warming temperatures and dry 
conditions expected. heights become maximized on Thursday, with 
the warmest temperatures of the week occurring then as a result. 
High- level clouds begin to increase late Thursday as moisture 
begins to increase slightly out from an upper-level low just off 
the southern California coast. However, a shortwave approaches 
from the north early Friday and moisture advection is quickly cut
off by more a return of more northwesterly flow. As a result, 
precipitation is not expected from this system. Breezy winds are 
expected Friday into morning as the shortwave passes. Given that 
the strongest low-level winds are expected overnight Friday, lack 
of mixing will keep the stronger 35-45 kt gusts above the 
inversion layer just off the surface. As a result, much of the 
lower elevation and valley locations are not expected to see as 
gusty conditions since the strongest gusts will be limited to 
mainly the high terrain.

In the wake of the shortwave, cooler temperatures and lighter winds 
remain from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Monday the upper-
level low off the coast begins to drift eastward. As it ejects on 
to the coast, moisture begins to increase with south/southwesterly
flow, resulting in a slight chance for preciptation Monday and 
Tuesday, mainly over the high terrain. However, only a handful of
GEFS and EPS ensemble members show light precipitation, with the 
rest remaining dry through the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 24 
hour TAF forecast period. Sfc winds light/variable, except areas of 
E-NE5-15kts along and just SW of higher terrain through 15Z Thurs. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure over the region will bring continued
dry weather and warm temperatures through Friday. Generally light 
winds on Thursday, trending southerly. Then, winds shift westerly 
through northeasterly on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...A low pressure system passing through the 
central Rockies will bring locally gusty northeast winds and cooler 
temperatures Saturday. Warmer temperatures and lighter northeast to 
east winds expected Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are expected 
to continue through this period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson


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