254 FXUS65 KBYZ 121629 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 929 AM MST Wed Jan 12 2022 .UPDATE... Made an update to remove Pops for locations east of Billings. Radar has shown a dramatic decrease in coverage and latest models have removed this from their solution. Satellite shows extensive clouds around in these locations, but ceilings were rather high, so not much probably coming out of the clouds. TWH && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday... An upper ridge positioned west of our area this morning will move eastward over our area later today into Thursday. While this ridge will keep largely dry weather going through Thursday, the winds aloft will still bring mid- and upper-level moisture over our area that will cause periods of considerable cloudiness. That said, an isolated rain or snow shower is possible east of Billings this morning through this afternoon as a few weak upper air disturbances move through the northwesterly flow over the area, but dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will limit precipitation amounts to a few 0.01 inch or less. In addition, a weak surface low moving eastward across southern Canada today will contribute to low-level west/southwesterly flow over our area, breezy conditions at the surface, and associated downsloping/compressional warming that will give another mild day today. Thursday will be mild again as another surface low moves eastward along the MT/Canada border and causes more downsloping/compressional warming. This second surface low will bring a cold front across our area Thursday night and a cooler day on Friday. High temperatures today and Thursday will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the 20s and 30s. Strong winds will be a concern again today in the foothills west and northwest of Billings and for a smaller portion of the foothills tonight into Thursday. For today, west/northwest mid- level winds around 50-60 kt combined with a strong sea-level pressure gradient should produce wind gusts to 50-60 mph in northern Sweet Grass County, the Livingston area and Beartooth Foothills. Because of this we have continued the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning for these areas. Winds could fluctuate at times as the mid-level winds change direction and the SLP gradient changes orientation. Windy conditions are also expected in the Wheatland County area today with gusts to 50-55 mph as winds mix down to the surface. However the pattern does not quite support numerous 60 mph gusts there at this time. Tonight into Thursday, the mid-level winds will relax which should cause winds in the Harlowton to Big Timber corridor to decrease. However, the SLP gradient south of Livingston-Nye is projected to remain strong into Thursday morning, so wind gusts to 55-60 mph are still expected in the Livingston area and Beartooth Foothills into Thursday morning. These strong crosswinds of 50-60 mph across the western foothills will make travel difficult for high- profile vehicles and those towing trailers so please use caution. RMS Thursday Night through Tuesday... Clipper system will bring a brief period of snow showers and breezy NW winds late Thursday night through early afternoon Friday. Models have actually trended a bit more unstable and deeper w/ moisture...but the short-duration of this system will keep potential snow accums limited. Nonetheless, the combination of up to 1-2" of snow (mainly in our southern upslope areas from Red Lodge to Fort Smith, Sheridan and Lame Deer), temps falling to the 20s, and 30-40 mph wind gusts producing localized blowing snow will result in difficult travel conditions mainly Friday morning. A heads up for those traveling I-90 south of Billings, and US-212 from Crow Agency to Broadus. One final note: it does appear the flow will turn northerly enough to hit Red Lodge, briefly, but if models trend more unstable we could see higher snowfall amounts. Will continue to monitor. Billings will be largely downsloped and may eke out at most a half inch of snow...more likely less. Less than half of EC ensembles show measurable snow at KBIL. Weather pattern returns to being quiet Friday night through Monday as we remain under above normal heights with western CONUS ridging. There appear to be a couple more periods of enhanced wind along the foothills...Friday night to Saturday, and Sunday night to Monday night. Gap areas (Livingston & Nye) will be favored during each of these periods. Between wind episodes, a modest backdoor cold front may brief cooler temps Sunday, and a slight chance of light snow in our east. Ensemble consensus is for colder Canadian air (of unknown magnitude at this time) to drop into our region next Tuesday/Wednesday. We will be on the western fringe of much colder air surging into the northern plains and Great Lakes. Ensemble height fields suggest we will remain influenced by west coast ridging and Pacific flow into British Columbia...so best bet is for us to see only periods of modest/shallow upslope cooling for the second half of next week. Potential for at least light snow will accompany any backdoor fronts. Continue to stress the uncertainty for next week. JKL && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the forecast period. There will be areas of mountain obscuration today into this evening. Expect strong winds gusting to 40-50 kt at times today over the foothills west and northwest of KBIL, including near KLVM, K6S0 and KHWQ. Winds will gust as high as 35 kt at times as far east as KBIL. Winds will decrease near KHWQ and K6S0 and eastward tonight but still gust to around 50 kt near KLVM through Thursday morning. There will be LLWS across portions of southeast MT through this evening. RMS/TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 032/051 031/039 023/045 027/042 025/045 028/041 0/B 10/N 32/J 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B LVM 051 033/049 029/039 022/044 025/041 025/044 026/041 0/N 00/N 31/B 00/N 00/B 00/N 11/B HDN 048 025/046 026/037 016/045 022/041 018/044 024/040 1/B 10/E 44/J 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/E MLS 044 026/046 024/030 013/040 024/036 016/039 020/033 1/B 00/E 23/J 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 4BQ 049 031/051 026/032 016/044 026/040 021/044 026/040 1/B 00/B 25/J 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B BHK 046 025/047 020/027 011/038 023/036 016/038 020/033 1/B 00/B 24/J 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/B SHR 051 031/051 028/034 016/050 024/041 021/048 026/041 1/B 00/E 57/J 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR ZONES 65-66. High Wind Warning in effect until 8 PM MST this evening FOR ZONE 141. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings