534 
FXUS63 KMKX 121006
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
406 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 406 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022)

Today through Thursday:

A weak mid level shortwave over MN will track across northern IL
and southern WI today. Looking at upstream obs, there are no low
clouds, no snow in the obs, and radar returns are very weak. The
RAP used to have a brief period with a saturated column, but now
it is showing a deep low level dry layer. There is concern that
there could be a lack of ice crystals on the southern edge of this
shortwave, so precip type would be drizzle rather than snow.
Temperatures are right around freezing early this morning and will
rise through the morning, but pavement temps should be below
freezing until midday. Kept slight chance of snow/freezing
drizzle/drizzle in the forecast for southern WI today, but it's
not looking like much of a threat anymore.

Highs today will be just a little warmer than yesterday. With
light winds and fairly high dewpoints, we should see some patchy
fog overnight into Thursday morning. Some melted snow from today
will contribute as well. It will probably be a little soupy in
some areas with low clouds and patchy fog. Southern WI near the IL
border will have a risk for some dense fog. 

Look for increasing northerly winds Thursday afternoon in the 
wake of a weak trough and cold front.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 406 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022)

Thursday night through Tuesday:

A cold front will pass Thu nt bringing nely boundary layer winds 
and possible LES to far ern WI. The LES potential would continue 
into Fri. The lake to 850 mb temp differences will be around 
14-16C, but with a fairly dry airmass just above the boundary 
layer. Any LES would be light. 

A digging and amplifying shortwave trough and its n-s sfc trough will
then track from the nrn Great Plains to the lower MS River Valley
for Fri-Sat, while a weaker shortwave trough will move through 
the Great Lakes. The GEFS has trended to the ECMWF in keeping the
qpf maximum across wrn IA, which puts wrn WI on the ern periphery
of the storm. Thus the 40-50 PoPs for lgt snow are west of
Madison with smaller PoPs elsewhere.  

A sw-ne oriented high pressure area will then shift into srn WI
Sat nt and weaken on Sun. A lgt swly wind may develop ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough and cold front from Canada. These
features will pass Sun nt into Mon. Its looking mostly dry but
cannot rule out pockets of flurries or very light snow. A sfc
ridge will shift across the area Mon nt followed by sly flow and
warm advection as low pressure moves from ND to central WI. 

Temperatures throughout this period will be near or below normal. 

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 406 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022)

VFR ceilings are expected today. There is a chance of light
snow, freezing drizzle, and drizzle in the forecast for today, but
that is becoming less likely based on upstream observations and
updated models. I left it out of the TAFs. 

Low clouds and fog are looking more likely for tonight into
Thursday morning due to light winds, melted snow, and relatively
high dewpoints. Not too much confidence for dense fog, but it 
will be possible, especially toward the IL border. 

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 406 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022)

A Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire early this morning
since westerly winds and waves will continue to diminish today.
Winds will remain light until Thursday night when northerly winds
start to increase. Steady east winds on Friday are expected to 
bring waves up to small craft criteria.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee