255 FXUS63 KFSD 082326 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 526 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Winds are turning from the southwest to the northwest this afternoon as colder air filters in from the north. Initially the northwest winds will actually erode the inversion and help temperatures rise into the mid to late afternoon, although by mid to late afternoon most locations will have already start to decline. By sunset the entire area will see increased cold advection. This will allow for some stronger wind gusts this afternoon and evening, with 30 to 40 mph likely the stronger wind gusts. The next concern is the cold, but for now wind chill values look to remain warmer than 25 below, likely averaging 10 below to 20 below at the coldest later tonight. So once again no need for an advisory. Sunday will be a cold day but as the upper level tough shifts east some slightly less cold air will build into far south central SD. Not exactly going to warm things up but from about Yankton to Chamberlain and points southwest highs may reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. Comparatively Marshall will only see a high around 10 as they are more buried into the cold air and still have some snow on the ground. Most locations will see highs from 15 to 25. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Sunday night into Monday will see the cold air reinforced a bit as a somewhat strong jet max aloft dives southeast. While the chances for snow are extremely slim some weaker forcing, marginal moisture and a supportive thermal structure may support flurries or patchy light snow in southwest MN and nearby locations. Would expect less than a couple of tenths at this time. Between clouds and some wind remaining in place lows will not be excessively cold but still below zero north of I-90. Highs will try to rebound on Monday a bit but will struggle with the cold high pressure drifting slowly east. Expect highs similar to Sunday, maybe a touch cooler in south central SD. Upper level ridging builds into the area and much warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday. Tuesday will see temperatures climb into the 40s in most locations south of highway 14 and possibly a few lower 50s near the Missouri River. Winds will likely be a touch on the gusty side as they turn to the west and northwest. A fast moving trough of low pressure to the north will break down the upper level ridging a bit Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the cold air will stay to the north. The areas that will be more at risk to not reach forecast highs will be near southwest MN where cooler air from the passing trough may linger a little longer. Upper level ridging builds back in on Thursday and at least for now this looks to be the warmest day of the week. Expect highs in the lower 50s along the Missouri River and even close to 40 across southwest MN. There will be some timing differences Tuesday through Thursday with this wave so tough to say for sure. Still leaning a little closer to the NBM 75th percentile with no snow on the ground and the models general tendency to underforecast highs with a westerly wind. Upper level ridging looks to break down on Friday night, possibly as early as Thursday night, and will usher in some colder air for the weekend. Not looking like much snow but there will at least be a chance for some light snow. Will have to watch the timing of this front and just how much cold air is behind it. Suspect that highs on Friday and Saturday will be colder but will have to monitor trends. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 Latest radar imagery shows light snow affecting areas along and north of Highway 14, which has resulted in brief reductions in vsbys and cigs at KHON. Should continue to see cigs and vsbys improve in the coming hours as any lingering light snow dissipates, with VFR conditions forecast to prevail for the remainder of the TAF cycle. Aside from this, expect breezy northwesterly winds to persist for much of the overnight period, with gusts between 25 to 35 mph possible. Otherwise, look for breezy conditions to gradually diminish by daybreak, with winds forecast to turn westerly then southerly by the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...SST