088 FXUS64 KBMX 070009 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 609 PM CST Thu Jan 6 2022 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1146 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022/ Through Friday. An area of surface low pressure continues to move northeastward across Central Alabama here at midday. An area of light to moderate rain continues to move from west to east out ahead of a trailing cold front. The surface low ended up tracking more to the north of what was originally expected, which subsequently pushed southerly flow and warm air advection more to the north as well. At the onset of the rainfall across the west and northwest this morning, temperatures were observed in the upper 30s and in some cases lower 40s with not enough cold and dry air advecting in from the north to support evaporative cooling. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain was cancelled as most of the rainfall has already moved off to the east before the cold air arrives from the west and northwest. With the threat of freezing rain and wintry weather aside, we now focus on the bitterly cold air that will be quickly moving in across Central Alabama today. A very sharp temperature gradient is currently being observed across Central Alabama, with Haleyville coming in at 33 degrees, while Troy is at 70 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Those warm temperatures across the south will be very short-lived as the cold front moves through later on this afternoon. A 1041mb surface ridge over the northern plains will continue to usher in the coldest air so far this winter season overnight tonight. Wind chills will be quite dangerous in the teens and single digits for many locations across the northern half of Central Alabama. Although this doesn't reach our Wind Chill Advisory criteria (which starts at zero) precautions still need to be taken in terms of limiting time outdoors and bringing pets indoors. Lows are expected to range from the mid teens in the far north to the upper 20s across the far south with strong cold air advection ongoing. With the arctic airmass in place, very cold temperatures will continue during the day on Friday despite full sunshine making an appearance. Thankfully northerly winds will be much lower by Friday afternoon between 5 and 10mph to limit wind chills, but we'll still be very cold. 56/GDG .LONG TERM... /Updated at 345 PM CST Thu Jan 06 2022/ Saturday through Wednesday. No major changes were made to the extended forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will move back into the area ahead of the next frontal system on early Sunday. Minor refinements were made to the grids with timing, but overall the thinking is the same. With dew points expected to be in the 50s to generally lower 60s, instability will not be as high as some of our previous events of late. Some elevated instability and thunderstorms are possible with some gusty winds, but severe storms are not anticipated at this time. This front will usher in cooler and dry weather for the first half of next week. 08 Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 352 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022/ Saturday through Wednesday. Mid-level height rises will take place on Saturday as a trough departs off the East Coast, while a broad trough enters the western and central CONUS. This progression will lead to the onset of southerly flow across the Deep South as a surface to 850 mb ridge moves to our east. Skies should remain mostly sunny for most of the day with temperatures much above those on Friday. As moisture continues to increase ahead of an approaching front, showers should move in from the west Sunday morning in connection with strong warm advection. Elevated instability could lead to embedded thunderstorms and heavy rain later in the morning and particularly during the afternoon. An area of limited surface-based CAPE may develop in our southern counties, and few strong storms could occur as a weak surface low moves through. Parameters do not appear supportive of severe storms at this time. Much colder and dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as strong high pressure moves in from the northwest behind the cold front. Fair weather should continue into Wednesday as northwest flow persists across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. A strong cold front was moving through MGM at this writing. The precipitation has ended for all terminals and breezy conditions are anticipated through 06z or so. IFR ceilings were dominating the skies north while MVFR ceilings were reported at MGM/TOI. Went slightly pessimistic with the ceilings the next 6-9 hours with IFR ceilings. Believe there will be ups and downs, but some moisture should be trapped near the low level inversion. Thereafter, we start to see ceilings rise and break up. Winds will be breezy out of the north and northwest 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts diminishing to 5-10kts in most areas on Friday. VFR expected after 12z at all terminals. Note: AMD NOT SKED is appended at KBHM due to ASOS power loss until further notice. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong cold front will continue to push through the southeast half of the state, followed by the coldest air of this winter. Behind the front, relative humidity values should drop to around 30 to 40 percent for Friday afternoon with north winds of 5 to 10 mph. Winds will shift to the east-southeast on Saturday ahead of the next weather system expected to move through on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 16 40 23 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 20 Anniston 21 43 26 56 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 22 41 28 55 44 / 0 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 23 43 29 57 46 / 0 0 0 0 30 Calera 23 43 29 57 46 / 0 0 0 0 20 Auburn 28 48 30 55 43 / 10 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 28 49 30 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 Troy 28 51 32 61 46 / 10 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$