618 FXUS61 KCAR 062327 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 627 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Intensifying low pressure will track southeast of the Gulf of Maine Friday, then exit east of Nova Scotia Saturday. An Arctic cold front will cross the region later Sunday through early Monday. High pressure builds in Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 6:27 PM Update: Partly to mostly cloudy across the north with a few flurries. There are more breaks in the clouds across the southern portion of the FA. The main update at this time was to upgrade coastal Washington County to a blizzard warning. The track and intensity of the low look similar to the blizzard in February 2017, but the confidence is low in widespread blizzard Conditons Downeast, but high enough along the Washington County coast to upgrade. Previous discussion: A weakening surface trough will remain over northern zones this evening with a lot of moisture in the H925 to H850 range. Resultant clouds and flurries will keep temps from dropping off too much. High pressure slowly builds overnight and may provide some brief clearing intervals, but high clouds will increase later in the night ahead of Friday's storm. The net result will be lows in the teens in northern zones and low to mid 20s for Bangor and Downeast. The big focus in the forecast remains on the Friday's powerful coastal storm. Southern stream moisture phases with a potent northern stream shortwave tonight. Bombogenesis occurs tonight into Friday as the developing surface low tracks from coastal Virginia towards the southern coast of Nova Scotia. The upper level trough will become negative tilted and the low pressure system will quickly become vertically stacked through H500 over western Nova Scotia by Friday evening. The storm may deepen by 35mb from this evening into Friday evening. The track ensures that the event will be all snow and that the greatest risk of heavy snow will be along the Downeast coast. This is where our ongoing warnings are located. Did add northern Hancock County to the warning with the expectation of reaching the 7-inch threshold within a 12-hour span. The explosive deepening of the storm is likely to generate intense banding that will impact coastal Hancock County and large portions of Washington County with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour on Friday afternoon. Storm total amounts of over 10 inches are now expected in coastal Washington County to include Machias, Lubec, Eastport and maybe as far north as Calais. The position of the emerging H500 low in the Gulf of Maine on Friday afternoon suggests even higher amounts are possible. Further north and west, amounts will decrease towards the 3 to 6 inch range with the lowest amounts towards the North Woods. Only a couple of inches are expected for the North Woods and northern locations such as Fort Kent. Did expand the advisory to include southern Aroostook County where advisory criteria of 4 inches is likely to be met. Ratios will be more favorable in northern zones with lighter winds and lower dendritic growth zone. Went with lower ratios closed to the coast due in part to the strong winds. Blowing and drifting snow is a big concern for Downeast Friday afternoon and will make travel very hazardous. The combination of heavy snow and winds gusting over 35 mph during Friday afternoon along the Downeast coast could necessitate an upgrade in our headlines. The key will be whether the heaviest banding sets up offshore or along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong low pressure will quickly exit to the northeast of Nova Scotia Friday evening. As it does so, the steadier snow across eastern and Downeast Maine will quickly diminish to scattered snow showers. Gusty Northwest winds can be expected in the tight pressure gradient between the exiting low and high pressure building in from the west. Areas of blowing snow can be expected Downeast, with patchy blowing snow expected across eastern areas much of the night. Otherwise, we will see partial clearing by Saturday morning. With winds staying up, don't expect much in the way of radiational cooling. Brief ridging H85 through H50 layer, and surface high pressure building across, will set the stage for a mainly sunny Saturday. Northwest winds will still be a bit on the gusty side early in the day, but will begin to diminish in the afternoon, with the axis of the surface ridge building in. There could still be some patchy blowing snow early Saturday morning, but won't include at this time. Highs on Saturday will continue below normal levels. By Saturday night, the surface high will continue to drift off to the east, as the upper flow becomes more westerly with time. As it does so, warm advection aloft will bring increasing mid and high level cloudiness overnight Saturday. A little light snow or snow showers are possible after midnight, mainly across the northern zones. On Sunday, a series of cold fronts will approach the region. This will bring the chance for snow showers or a little snow to the region Sunday and Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be the last "mild" day for a while, with highs reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s north and low to mid 30s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The big story in the long term will be the bitter cold air that will move into the region early to mid week... The leading edge of the arctic air will begin to cross the region Sunday evening and into Sunday night. Will need to watch for the potential of more significant snow showers or squalls with that feature. Strong cold air advection can be expected on Monday behind the arctic boundary, with early highs in the low teens across the north and lower 20s Downeast. Monday night will be a very cold and blustery night with sub zero readings across the area. Wind chill advisories/warnings will likley be be needed for a good portion of the area. Tuesday will be a bitter cold and blustery day with high temperatures not making it out of the single digits below zero across the north, and only in the lower single digits above zero downeast. Temperatures will slowly moderate mid week. although still well below normal. The next system will bring the chance for snow possibly by Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight for BGR and BHB. Conditions will vary between MVFR and VFR tonight for sites north of HUL and GNR...with IFR even possible at times for FVE in light snow. Light and variable wind. For Friday, all sites will quickly go to IFR or LIFR in the morning due to snow. The snow may be heavy with VLIFR vis for BGR, BHB, Machias and Eastport by late morning into the afternoon. Blowing snow will also be a vis restriction for sites such as Eastport, Machias, Princeton, and BHB in the afternoon. N wind increases to 10 to 15 knots at the northern Taf sites, but to 15 to 25 knots at KBGR and likely even stronger with gusts to 35 knots possible late in the day at KBHB. SHORT TERM: Fri night...IFR in snow in the evening, then improving to VFR after midnight. NW winds 10 to 20 kt gusting to 25 kt. Sat..VFR. NW wind 10 to 15 kt, decreasing to less than 10 kt late. Sat night...VFR, possible MVFR in sct -SHSN North late. S wind around 5 kt. Sun and Sun night...MVFR in sct -shsn or -sn. W to SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Mon...VFR. NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Tue...VFR. Nw Wind 10 to 15 kt. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A high impact gale event for Friday afternoon and Friday night. Seas will increase towards 7 to 8 feet again Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds will begin to subside to SCA conditions later Friday night, with SCA conditions continuing through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for MEZ006-011-015-032. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for MEZ016-017-029. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for MEZ030. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCW Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...CB/MCW/TWD Marine...CB/MCW/TWD