654 FXUS64 KJAN 280610 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1210 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 06Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions should hold through much of the night. Stratus deck will begin to come into play around 11-12z dropping cigs to MVFR. Early morning- afternoon VCSH possible with gusts up to 20-25kts. Winds will be out of the S/SW./JNE/ && .DISCUSSION... No major changes to the forecast tonight. Sfc southerly flow will allow moisture to trickle in and cause a sprinkle or some light precip overnight into the early morning. By morning, rain chances will increase as a warm frontal boundary is stalled to our north. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to mid 60s. /AJ/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tuesday: Warm conditions continued today as plenty of sunshine and gusty southerly winds contributed to temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. To our north, a frontal boundary is stalled but will remain to our north as several surface lows track along or near it from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley. The upper ridge that has been entrenched over the region will finally push east and we will be under southwest flow aloft. Our region will continue to be in the warm sector as gusty southerly winds will bring continued warm, moist air into the region through tomorrow. Hi- res guidance indicates more potential for some warm advection showers beginning later tonight and continue through teh day tomorrow. There is some potential for some storms to develop across the southern sections of the forecast area tomorrow but no severe weather is expected. Overnight lows will continue to be on the warm side with readings in the 60s, with mid to upper 60s in the west. Highs tomorrow will again be similar to today with readings in the 70s and lower 80s. /28/ Tuesday night through Sunday: Warmer than normal temperatures and moisture will continue areawide into Wednesday ahead of a second cold front that will be approaching our CWA from the northwest. Our PWATs are expected to pool above and inch and a half with low to mid 60F surface dew points. Although deep layer shear looks to increase to 50kts Wednesday morning, MLCAPE is expected to remain less than 400J/kg prior to 18Z and little to no deep convection is expected in our CWA prior to 18Z per the latest 18Z HRRR run. As the day progresses and convection shows an uptick isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible especially across the northwest half of our CWA where the best instability and shear are progged to reside into the evening. The cold front will be nearly parallel to the flow aloft leaving it to drift into the northwest portions of our CWA toward sunrise Thursday. With the winds aloft remaining southwesterly, the cold front is expected to stall across our southern zones Thursday afternoon. The stalled front will remain the focus for precipitation development along and south of it into Friday when it moves back north of the CWA as a warm front. By Saturday morning our whole CWA will be back in the warm sector with PWATs back above an inch and a half along with mid to upper 60F dew points. An upper level trough digging southeast of the Four Corners region and over the southern Plains will help generate a surface low to the west of our CWA. There are significant differences in the models with whether or not a closed low develops and the position and track of the surface low but widespread rain chances are expected to develop across our CWA Saturday into Saturday night. Considering the expected environmental parameters, severe storm develop will be possible mainly Saturday night into Sunday morning across our whole CWA. There will also be some heavy rainfall with this system but flooding issues are not a concern due to the dry antecedent conditions. A return to cooler and drier conditions are still expected Sunday in the wake of the cold front. /22/&& && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 79 65 79 / 7 50 58 85 Meridian 61 78 65 78 / 6 52 81 79 Vicksburg 64 81 66 80 / 12 35 42 87 Hattiesburg 61 80 65 80 / 12 57 82 74 Natchez 64 81 66 80 / 15 39 49 81 Greenville 65 77 64 76 / 11 29 34 93 Greenwood 65 78 66 77 / 10 40 45 94 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ JNE