866 FXUS62 KTAE 271821 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 121 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Tuesday] Cigs will continue to improve this afternoon and evening to VFR, except ECP where MVFR is expected to persist. With a similar pattern in place, expect fog and low clouds to renew overnight into Tuesday morning at all of the terminals, with a period of dense fog. Slow improvement to MVFR is expected by the end of the TAF period. South-Southwest will continue around 5 to 10 knots, except becoming light and variable overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1033 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... And the beat goes on! Fog is rampantly spreading through the Tri- State region with widespread reports and observations showing very low visibilities of 1/4 mile or less. The dense fog advisory remains in effect for the entire area through 9AM ET / 8AM CT and may need to be extended by an hour or so depending on trends. The 00Z TAE sounding continues the strong subsidence inversion around 4K feet with moist south to southwest flow underneath a more westerly dry flow aloft. As the nights wear on with surface cooling and dewpoint depressions lessen, fog is likely to develop and spread inland on the southwest flow. Tonight is extremely dense and more widespread as compared to the previous nights so it may take a little longer to burn off. Synoptically, surface high pressure will reside over the Florida peninsula while upper high will move east through the southern Gulf and over the Bahamas. Southerly flow will continue on the backside of the surface high while mid/upper southwest flow to the north of the mid/upper high. A cold front resides in the southern Plains but won't make any headway east due to the strong high in place. Once the daily fog dissipates, partly sunny skies can be expected with highs in the upper 70s and lows will fall into the lower 60s. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]... The strong upper level ridge that has been in place over the southern Gulf will quickly move east through the middle of the week as stronger southwesterly flow aloft develops. Embedded in this southwesterly flow aloft will be a few disturbances. At the surface, the southerly flow regime we've been in will remain in place, and we'll likely strengthen through the middle of the week. With increased moisture around, expect the pattern of foggy mornings to continue, as well as an increase in afternoon rain chances, especially across our southeast Alabama counties and into the Florida Panhandle. While severe prospects remain low with these series of disturbances, we'll need to monitor our Alabama counties where shear values will be locally higher compared to the rest of the tri-state region. Warm high temperatures in the upper 70s, around 10 degrees above normal, and very mild mornings in the low to mid 60s, around 15 to 20 degrees above normal, are expected. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The warm and mild conditions will continue into the weekend as warm southerly flow continues. West/southwesterly flow aloft will continue as an upper level ridge rebuilds across the southern Gulf and the upper level pattern becomes increasingly amplified. The increased rain chances from Wednesday will stick around on Thursday and Friday as a weakening front becomes stationary across the southeast. Mid-level level winds will remain elevated so a strong storm or two can't be ruled out through the remainder of the week given the instability still in place. Model guidance is in good agreement on a strong cold front approaching the region by Sunday. This front will bring the potential for severe weather, given the much stronger wind profiles associated with the upper level trough, and plenty of instability given the long duration southerly flow ahead of this trough. Much cooler conditions will move in behind this trough for early next week. .MARINE... Southerly flow will prevail through much of the week. Winds will be around 10 to 15 knots along with seas around 2 to 4 feet. Winds and seas increase in the middle of the week to 3 to 5 feet as southerly flow increases to 15 to 20 knots. This will likely bring cautionary conditions to area waters. Fog is also possible most overnight periods, especially across the near-shore portions of the Apalachee Bay. Rain chances will gradually increase through the week with the best chances on Wednesday and Thursday along nearshore waters. .FIRE WEATHER... Fog will be a concern for the next few mornings with a persistent moist and stable airmass remains in place. Dispersions appear favorable despite low mixing heights with transport winds more moderate levels. Rain chances return for midweek and into the weekend associated with the next frontal passage. .HYDROLOGY... A change in the weather pattern will occur this week bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Despite the increased rain chances, seven day rainfall amounts remain fairly light around 0.50 or less with slightly higher amounts of three quarters of an inch possible in SE AL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 76 64 77 66 / 0 10 10 30 30 Panama City 65 76 66 76 67 / 10 20 30 40 40 Dothan 63 77 64 77 67 / 10 20 40 60 60 Albany 63 78 64 78 67 / 10 10 20 50 40 Valdosta 60 77 62 77 66 / 0 10 10 20 10 Cross City 58 76 61 77 65 / 0 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 63 74 64 74 66 / 10 10 20 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM...Dobbs AVIATION...LF MARINE...Dobbs/LF FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...KR/Dobbs