695 FXUS64 KAMA 271003 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 403 AM CST Mon Dec 27 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. 08z WV satellite reveals robust west-southwesterly flow aloft over the much of the southern two thirds of the CONUS with two notable upper waves - the first over FSD and the second diving southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to northern California. At the surface, low pressure associated with the FSD wave is present from E SD southeastward to around MCI with an associated E-W cold front beginning to develop and push southward through KS. Today, aforementioned cold front pushes south into OK, with the western extent of this feature roughly bisecting the CWA from NW to SE, thus keeping the northeastern half of the Panhandles closer to average highs while the southwest may spike up into the mid 60s as southwesterly surface winds continue there. Always a tough call on temperatures in these setups but, with a lack of low level moisture suggesting optically thick stratus will not develop northeast of the cold front, have stuck with consensus, resisting the urge to go below NBM in the northeastern Panhandles. That said, heating looks to be hampered a bit across the forecast area by plentiful cirrus, so a repeat of highs in the 70s appears unlikely for any location. Tonight into early Tuesday morning, primary forecast concern is - yes, really - precipitation potential, with emphasis on the word potential. Base of the N CA wave looks to advance and quickly translate over the CWA around 12z Tuesday. Ahead of this wave, weak plume of 700mb moisture looks to advance over an El Paso - Wichita axis. With weak residual convergence in the low levels courtesy of the remnants of the previously discussed cold front, perhaps enhanced by ageostrophic response from being under the right entrance region of a strong upper jet, some guidance suggests a few hundredths of precipitation could occur around and south of Interstate 40 from Amarillo eastward before sunrise. Given the dry antecedent conditions and dry thermodynamic profiles below 700mb, do not think precipitation will occur, although some virga would be likely. Have thus kept mentions of precipitation out of the forecast for now but have introduced 10 PoPs to portions of Potter/Randall Counties eastward. Those dry near surface conditions continue to play a prominent role in the forecast during the day Tuesday. As downslope westerly surface winds prevail, RH values look to drop across the Panhandles. That said, given the timing of the passage of the upper wave early in the day, 700/850mb and, by extension, surface winds do not look to increase to notable levels. That said, given the surface pressure gradient, some breezy conditions could occur. Elevated to perhaps critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as discussed further in the fire weather section below. Ferguson FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday. Elevated to perhaps critical fire weather conditions appear likely for Tuesday. Tuesday, early arrival of an upper shortwave will drive cyclogenesis to our northeast in KS, leading to downslope easterly winds across the Panhandles during the day. Many locations, particularly in the eastern Panhandles, will see RH values drop below 20 percent. As this occurs, surface pressure gradient will help those westerly winds ramp up to 15 to 25 mph. That said, top end wind potential looks to be limited as progged 700/850mb winds remain around 35 knots or less with this weak jet seen only over the SW TX Panhandle. Nevertheless, elevated conditions appear likely across the Panhandles given RFTI values of 1 to 3 in the presence of well cured fuels. Should better overlap be seen between the modest 700/850mb jet and the drier RH values, some low end critical conditions could develop. Ferguson && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. A cold front will likely move into parts of the northern and northeastern zones Tuesday night and Wednesday. How far south this frontal boundary goes remains highly uncertain this far out in time, and will be something to watch as time gets closer. Most short and medium range models stall this frontal boundary somewhere across the northern zones, then lift it back north by Thursday. A surface trof of low pressure is then expected to develop Thursday and Friday in advance of a much stronger cold front that will likely impact the region this weekend. The forecast for Saturday and Sunday remains uncertain as medium range models are not in the best agreement handling another, sharper upper level shortwave trof for Friday night into Saturday. The deterministic models agree on bringing a stout cold front through the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday. However, these deterministic models do not agree on the prospects for precipitation. The ensembles are also not definitive on the threat for precipitation as seen with the very low NBM pop values for Saturday. Since this is 5 to 6 days out in time, have incorporated NBM pops and temperatures Wednesday through Sunday, subject to adjustments Friday night through Sunday as time gets closer and medium range models begin to converge on a more common solution. 02 && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday through Sunday. Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop Wednesday through Friday across parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to breezy winds at times along with low relative humidity values. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 62 42 59 34 58 / 10 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 56 39 62 21 52 / 5 5 0 0 0 Boise City OK 56 32 54 22 52 / 5 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 65 45 62 34 61 / 5 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 62 39 59 32 58 / 10 5 0 0 0 Canyon TX 63 40 59 34 58 / 5 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 63 46 63 36 61 / 5 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 58 33 56 27 53 / 5 5 0 0 0 Guymon OK 57 38 59 22 54 / 5 5 0 0 0 Hereford TX 64 40 59 33 58 / 5 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 59 43 63 26 59 / 0 5 0 0 0 Pampa TX 61 43 60 33 59 / 5 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 64 46 65 32 63 / 5 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 65 48 67 34 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$