868 FXUS63 KEAX 251712 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1112 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 211 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2021 Key Messages... - Quiet Christmas Day, partly sunny, high temperatures in the 50s along and north of the Missouri River and in the lower 60s F to the south. Highs across the KC Metro in the mid to upper 50s. - Above normal temperatures will persist through early next week. - Rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday. Detailed Discussion... Through 2 AM CST, the frontal boundary had advanced south, onto the Ozark Plateau. Well behind the primary winds shift, an area of light rain continued to slowly track east across northern Missouri. This rain activity should continue to track east, clearing through daybreak. With the frontal passage this morning, weak surface ridging will settle, with light north and northwest winds through the day. With partly sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 50s north of the Missouri River and near 60 along and south. Overall a rather quiet and pleasant Christmas Day. Into Sunday, weak 500mb ridge will build over the region, with a return to southerly flow through the day, increasing out of the south and southeast as a surface trough moves across NE/KS into the evening. In response, temperatures will respond accordingly, with highs in to the low to mid 60s across central Missouri into east central Kansas and mid 50s to the north. Additionally, Short range solutions suggest some modest moisture return through the lower levels, enough to support some light rain and drizzle, generally from southeast Kansas into central Missouri Sunday evening. Overall, not much measurable precipitation is expected at this time. Mild, by December standards, weather will persist Monday and into Tuesday, however, expect a pattern shift Monday night into Tuesday as a deepening upper trough makes progress through the Inter- Mountain West. Well ahead, increasing moisture return looks to pool along and south of the stretched warm front from Oklahoma toward the Ohio Valley. This combo of broad-scale ascent and ample moisture will result in increasing widespread rain chances building across the Ozarks well to the east along the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will increase from the south after Midnight and continue through early Tuesday morning before shifting east Tuesday night. The best chances will reside east of of the Kansas City Metro, focused primarily from central Missouri, south and east. However, at first glance, any rain is welcome at this point of the dry winter season. Expect upwards of a few tenths of an inch for the Metro area to around a half inch in central Missouri. After unseasonably warm weather through Tuesday, post frontal passage Tuesday night will bring lows in the teens to mid 20s Wednesday morning and highs will struggle to pull above freezing across northern Missouri to around freezing along and south of the Missouri River. Colder, more seasonable weather will persist into Thursday, but by New Years Eve, we'll likely see a return shift to southerly flow and chilly, but mild temperatures to close out 2021. && .Climate... Issued at 225 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2021 Kansas City has not received a sub-freezing high temperature thus far this cool season. With this forecast package not indicating any maximum temperature coming up short of 32 degrees through at least December 31st; and should it hold true, it would place future dates in the running for top 4 latest date of sub-freezing maximum temperature in KC history. Top Five Latest First Subfreezing High Temperature at Kansas City Rank Season Date Temperature 1 1965-1966 1/17 26 2 1931-1932 1/08 31 3 1912-1913 1/05 21 4 1923-1924 12/31 12 5 1946-1947 12/29 13 && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1109 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2021 VFR conditions through the TAF period. High level CIGs with ceilings around 25,000 feet will move into the area by this evening as winds become light and variable. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Kurtz Aviation...Klaus Climate...Kurtz