136 FXUS64 KMEG 230336 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 936 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021 .UPDATE... One last clear and cold night across the Midsouth. Surface high pressure was centered over TN River valley at 9 PM. Temps over the west TN near the TN River had already cooled to 30 to 32, with calm winds. Jackson was the cool spot at 29. Dewpoints over west TN prevailed in the lower and middle 20s. Weak return flow around the aforementioned surface high will develop along and west of the MS River toward sunrise, possibly resulting in temperatures holding steady or even rising slightly in the predawn hours. Most recent forecast update lowered overnight lows a few degrees further east of the MS River. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ UPDATE... See the 00Z aviation discussion below. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/ DISCUSSION... High pressure remains over the Mid-South this afternoon. Temperatures remain on the chilly side despite plenty of sunshine mainly due to the northeasterly winds. Once the sun sets, expect temperatures will begin to plummet as winds become light and variable. Expect lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds will quickly turn around to the south on Thursday as the high shifts east. By the afternoon, expect low clouds will begin to invade Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Some drizzle may occur as well. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Confidence in the forecast dwindles after Thursday as some of the models show the low clouds with the potential for drizzle or light warm air advection showers to continue Thursday Night through at least Christmas day. Have left mention of POPS or drizzle out of forecast for now. Went ahead and increased cloud cover some, but may need to be increased further if more models begin to show this trend. Warm temperatures, with readings reaching back into the 70s, will occur through this period, but if clouds hang around not sure if it will be record breaking. Will have to wait and see. If the sun does pop out especially on Christmas Day then the combination of the sun and gusty southerly winds could help temperatures warm above the record highs. Have left high temperatures for Christmas similar to the previous forecast for now. The next question with the forecast is with a cold front that is expected to move into Northeast Arkansas around sunset Christmas Day. The ECMWF sags the front as far south as the I-40 corridor Saturday Night and then quickly lifts it back to the north Sunday morning. Meanwhile, the GFS brings the front south all the way through the CWA and stalls it over Central Mississippi before lifting it back to the north early next week. As a result, there are major differences on temperatures between the two solutions for Sunday into early next week. If the GFS is correct, highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. However, if the ECMWF is correct then highs will remain 70s. Leaned toward the ECMWF with temperatures. By Tuesday into Wednesday, it looks like a wet pattern will set up over the Mid-South as the front sags back into the Mid-South and stalls over the region. Periods of showers possibly a few thunderstorms will occur along the front. POPS will likely need to be raised in the coming days if confidence grows that this wet pattern will indeed set up. KRM CLIMATE RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 25TH: MEM 76/1889 MKL 71/1982 JBR 72/1942 TUP 78/1987 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR conds over next 24 to 30 hours. Light and variable winds overnight. Winds will increase to 10 to 12 kts tomorrow afternoon and gust as high as 20 kts. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$