192 FXUS63 KDLH 211119 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 519 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday) Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 Summary: Quick moving shortwave through today and again on Thursday. Slight warmup towards the first half of the weekend before a much cooler start to next week. Could there be snow on Christmas? One of two shortwaves moves through this morning dropping 1 to 4 inches across our CWA before exiting this afternoon. Radar and observations indicate that the snow has begun for the far southwestern portion of the CWA and is moving eastward. For areas eastward from the Arrowhead to northwestern WI is rather dry from the surface to roughly 700mb. Model data is indicating that the shortwave is tapping into moisture from the the Pacific region which will help saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere. As the shortwave moves eastward a jet couplet sets up over parts of NE MN leading to decent lift/omega throughout the column and especially in the DGZ. Given the moisture profile, lack of a warm nose and omega in the DGZ, raised the snow ratio to 20:1 in some locations. The strong lift and moisture throughout the column continues to push eastward providing the higher snow totals along an axis from the Brainerd Lakes region to Duluth to Ashland. As the system exits the region, northwest flow off the lake will help enhance lake effect snow for portions of northern Iron County late this evening and is expected to shut off by tomorrow morning as the winds turn more westerly. A Winter Weather Advisories have been issued through this afternoon. The next shortwave is progged to move through Thursday morning with a waa pattern. Similarly to today's precipitation, the shortwave is expected to exit the region quickly. Snow totals at the moment appear to be less than an inch. While the shortwave does travel along a similar path, the omega will be lacking for this system. A couple of chances of precipitation are possible over the holiday weekend. However, models have not been in good agreement on timing and location for each. Temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 30s which could bring a rain/snow mix to the region before a cold front is progged to move through late Friday evening. This could set up the next system on Saturday with colder temperatures which could bring snow on Christmas day. Given the uncertainty if either scenario plays out it is too early to give snow totals or even higher confidence PoPs. Given the holiday travel expected, this will certainly be something to keep an eye over the next several model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021 Satellite reveals high clouds advancing out of the west tonight out ahead of an approaching weather system. As we move towards the morning hours clouds will continue to lower to MVFR criteria and snowfall will spread across the region. The incoming clipper will be moving along at a quick pace but will still be capable of producing some measurable snow across the terminals. HIB/DLH/BRD/HYR are expected to see between 2-5 inches of snow lesser amounts further north at INL. There will be brief periods of heavy snowfall where visibility will drop to LIFR. Look for the system to exit the region in the afternoon with the possibility of some lingering MVFR clouds through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021 A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for later this afternoon for portions of the North and South Shore including the Outer Apostle Islands. Winds will be out of the south initially this morning before switching to the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots by this afternoon. A cold front is expected this evening which will switch the winds to the northwest at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Waves are expected to build to 2 to 5 feet from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor including the Outer Apostle Islands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 15 0 21 11 / 100 0 0 20 INL 11 -3 17 3 / 100 0 0 10 BRD 16 0 24 10 / 100 0 0 30 HYR 18 -1 22 10 / 100 0 0 10 ASX 19 3 24 11 / 100 0 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ001>004-006>009. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ019>021-025- 026-033>038. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for LSZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ148. && $$ DISCUSSION...KSE AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KSE