981 FXUS63 KFGF 162057 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 257 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Snow amounts Friday and Friday night is the main challenge for the period. A few lingering areas of flurries and blowing snow in western MN, but otherwise much more quiet this afternoon. Upper flow will become more southwesterly ahead of the next trough, with surface high pressure keeping things quiet overnight. Winds will continue to drop this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes, and there should be a period of partly cloudy skies overnight before clouds increase towards morning as the next system approaches. Light winds and snow cover should help drop lows tonight into the the single digits above and below zero. The next trough will move into the western Plains tomorrow, and there is indication again of a more southerly shortwave and another northerly one, although this time the more northern one is stronger. Easterly winds picking up tomorrow over our southern counties as low pressure develops over SD/Neb. There is a decent amount of warm air advection and the lift from the southern shortwave developing some precip over northeastern SD by Friday afternoon. Several of the model runs are quite bullish on precip amounts with this southern shortwave with some weak 700mb frontogenesis. There will also be some interaction with the northern shortwave that will be quickly swinging by Friday night. Snow looks fairly likely, mainly across our southern counties, but there is still a lot of spread in the ensembles as to how much. Advisory level snow in the 3-5 inch range is definitely possible, but given recent events a little gun shy on pulling the trigger for a headline at this time. Will message good probabilities of accumulating snow over 2 inches and hold off on any headlines for now. Temps will remain fairly cold through the end of the work week with highs in the single digits and teens and lows on either side of zero. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 Overview... Some winter weather impacts may be possible with a quick moving system on Tuesday. Otherwise, the bulk of impactful weather across the long term will be tied to generally below normal temperatures. Discussion... As an upper trough translates eastward by the early weekend period, transient upper level ridging is expected to take its place. Some light snow showers/flurries may be possible across northwestern Minnesota Saturday morning as a result, but should taper off throughout the day. Before the upper ridge really takes hold of the region, below normal temperatures will likely stick around on Saturday. Moving into Sunday, strong WAA ahead of an upper trough moving over the Canadian prairies will lead to more seasonable temperatures in the 20s. This will be short lived, however, as an attendant cold front will once again introduce CAA to the region via northwesterly surface flow. A resultant return to below normal temperatures is in the cards and is expected to persist through much of next week. While surface high pressure looks to dominate the region, an upper level shortwave will look to bring some precipitation impacts to the region on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement on this feature, with the main discrepancy stemming from the exact track of this shortwave. Regardless, general consensus indicates that this will be a light snow event, with ensemble probabilities of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 1 inch in the 10-20% range generally north of the I-94 corridor. As this system departs, west-northwesterly flow aloft will continue the CAA stream that will yield a continuation of below normal temperatures moving into the midweek period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1141 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021 MVFR ceilings continue across much of our central and eastern forecast area, with some light snow and BR reducing vis to 1 mile at times on the MN side. Conditions should continue to improve over the next few hours, and all sites should be VFR by this evening. Northwest winds that are gusting up towards 30 kts will settle down this evening, then become light and variable. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Rick AVIATION...JR