139 
FXUS64 KLUB 160817
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Southwest flow aloft will continue today as long wave troughing 
encompasses much of the CONUS. A weak cold front was currently 
moving through the region shifting light winds to the north but 
primarily bringing in much drier surface air. Afternoon temperatures 
will be much cooler today because of the front but still above 
seasonal averages for mid-December. A surface ridge will only bring 
a glancing blow as it quickly moves east tonight. This will result 
in moist return flow overnight tonight and low stratus moving in 
Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...
Low PoP chances have been maintained across the far southeastern 
Rolling Plains on Friday night into early Saturday morning as the 
polar cold front surges southward. Frontogenetical forcing will be 
weak as the parent shortwave trough pivots over the northern Great 
Plains, with a portion of the shortwave splitting off from the 
progressive polar jet stream and diving southward towards Baja 
California. Ahead of the front, a moist boundary-layer by December 
standards, characterized by lower 30 mb mean dewpoints of around 55 
deg F amidst temperatures in the lower 70s should contribute to 
weak/meager MLCAPE at ~500 J/kg across the southeastern Rolling 
Plains. Thunder has been added into the grids, but organized nor 
severe thunderstorms are not expected; however, small hail and 
perhaps a strong wind gust or two will be possible. Any multi-cells 
that do materialize will quickly move south along the front. 
Otherwise, the rest of the CWA will be dry on Friday with light and 
variable winds prior to frontal passage, with breezy, north-
northeasterly winds following the front. 

A chilly weekend is in store as the modified cP airmass settles in, 
with high temperatures peaking in the middle-upper 40 deg F range on 
Saturday and Sunday. Breezy conditions will persist on Saturday out 
of the northeast, with winds veering to the south by Sunday 
afternoon as the expansive surface anticyclone centers over the 
middle Mississippi River Valley. The aforementioned shortwave trough 
will pivot eastward over the State of Texas by Monday, and depending 
where exactly the core of the mid/upper-level low tracks will 
dictate how far north the region of moist, isentropic ascent will 
advect. Low PoPs (slight chance) have been maintained at this time 
given discrepancies among NWP guidance and the respective ensemble 
members, as global guidance has sloshed back and forth over the past 
few days. Regardless, any precipitation that does occur will be 
light, with the potential for mixed-phased precipitation overnight 
as the columns would gradually become saturated with respect to 
ice. After the shortwave trough moves off to the east, benign and 
mild weather is forecast through the end of the forecast period.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

01/09