539 FXUS64 KLUB 160427 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1027 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021 .UPDATE... Light west to northwest flow surface remains with stronger flow aloft tonight creating some low level wind shear. A weak cold front will move southward a little before daybreak with light north to northeast breezes in the morning before trending more southeast and southerly later tomorrow but remaining light. VFR with high clouds otherwise. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021/ AVIATION... Winds were rapidly diminishing with early decoupling in the lower atmosphere, and will remain fairly light through the night. Periods of low level wind shear still should be expected. Also, a weakening cold front will approach later tonight - will attempt more detail in the next forecast package. RMcQueen PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021/ SHORT TERM... Southwesterly winds aloft have resulted in a steady stream of high clouds over the FA today. Additionally, with mostly cyclonic flow aloft to our west and a short wave trough to our north quickly moving to the northeast, surface winds have remained backed more than what was expected. With these more southerly winds, low-level moisture has been slow to mix out early this afternoon. As the upper trough over eastern Colorado continues to move off to the east, a surface low centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle will begin to push off to the east and northeast. This will allow winds to veer, advecting some drier air from the west. These strong west- southwesterly winds could increase the blowing dust over the area, resulting in minor reductions in visibility. Also, a wind advisory remains in effect until 5 PM, and a Red Flag Warning remains until 6 PM for much of the far southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains, as winds of 30-40 mph gusting to 55 mph will remain possible this afternoon. As the surface low continues to move away from the region, the surface gradient will begin to relax, resulting in decreasing wind speeds later this afternoon. A cold front is expected to move through the area this evening into to tonight, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Behind the front, lows will fall into the upper-20s and 30s. With the front not making it through the southeastern Rolling Plains until near daylight, lows will only fall into the low to mid-40s there. Mid- level highs will continue to fall slightly tomorrow, and surface winds will be slow to become southeasterly, resulting in temperatures warming into the low 60s. LONG TERM... There was not a lot of change to the forecast this afternoon. The main adjustment was to add a slight chance of precipitation the far southern part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon and to the southeast corner Sunday night as a modest upper low progged to form over northern Baja California (a little farther to the west than previous progs indicated) opens and moves eastward. The biggest question will be availability of low to mid level moisture with the models looking a little more favorable than at this time yesterday. The expected temperature profile favors rain, although enough evaporative cooling might occur in the column to merit a mention of snow as well later Sunday night. Otherwise, the previous forecast is generally on track. A cold front Friday night will bring much cooler air Saturday with that cooler air lingering through Sunday as cloud cover increases ahead of the approaching upper low. Short wave ridging aloft in the wake of the departing upper low will result in a rebound of temperatures for Monday through Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99