640 FXUS64 KMAF 121716 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1116 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 VFR conditions and light south winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 209 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 Clear skies and light winds are causing temperatures to cool to near freezing across much of the region. Winds have stay elevated across the southern Permian Basin preventing temperatures in Midland/Odessa from reaching freezing, but that could change around sunrise as winds calm. Dewpoints have dropped into the teens across the Permian Basin and single digits across Southeast New Mexico resulting in low RHs. Winds should pick up across the northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon with critically low RHs, read the fire weather discussion for more information. Troughing continues to deepen over W CONUS and in response ridging will build in over the plains. Temperatures are forecasted to increase to above normal by this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will also increase 5 to 10 degrees ranging from the 30s to 40s across the area. Mid-level ridging is expected to increase heights across the Southern Plains. By Monday afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to reach the mid 70s placing the area 10 degrees above normal. The warming trend continues into the long term. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 209 AM CST Sun Dec 12 2021 A long fetch sw flow on Tue/Wed will entrain some high clouds however the presence of a pronounce 85h temp anomaly and sw surface winds will push high temps close to record highs. Said sw flow aloft will strengthen, especially Wed, setting up what will likely be a windy-very windy day across GDP Mtns/SE NM Plains with breezy-windy conditions across the PB, wind highlights will probably be needed for the former areas mentioned. In wake of said trof an assocd cold front will follow dropping high temps about 10 degrees, but they will still be above normal. High temps Fri will have enough time to warm up a few degrees as the cold front will hold off arriving until Fri night-Sat AM. The general idea is that Sat the 18th will be cold, high in the 30s and 40s. Low-level pattern continues to be indicative of isentropic ascent, however there is uncertainty as to where the upper jet will located and thus the assocd deeper lift. the Post-frontal precip is possible Sat, especially e and s, in assocn with an isentropic ascent pattern along with deeper lift assocd with an upper-level jet. In fact GFSBUFR on Sat is completely saturated with a 3C warm nose btwn 85h-7h with surface temps well below freezing after 18Z, favoring freezing rain/sleet. ECMWF is warmer and drier. Of course still too far out to say which is actually favored with NBM generating warmer temps and 25-50% PoPs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 36 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 67 34 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 39 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 42 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 59 41 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 34 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 67 35 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 68 37 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 67 39 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 68 32 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....49 AVIATION...10