140 FXUS62 KJAX 120941 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 441 AM EST Sun Dec 12 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A cold front is sliding south and east through SE GA into the I-10 corridor of NE FL early this morning with a line of showers swiftly moving eastward from the suwannee valley to Waycross and Brunswick. Surface high pressure at the surface is to our southeast over the northern Bahamas and the southwesterly winds around 5-10 mph are keeping dewpoints elevated into the mid to upper 60s across the area. A potent mid/upper level trough over the eastern third of the US is lifting NE along the eastern seaboard with most of the shortwave energy translating north of the region into the Carolinas and the Mid Atlantic states. Therefore, most of the activity should remain showers through sunrise with very limited most unstable CAPE less than 300 J/kg still along the FL/GA state line as of the 06Z Laps analysis. Some low level Surface to 3km shear values up to 30 knots and a quick nose of near 70 dewpoints caused low topped shower to produce some rotation near the intersection of I-10 and I-75 overnight, but a steady weakening trend was observed with just a broken line of showers traveling along the I-10 corridor. Low stratus has formed ahead of the showers from Gainesville to the Jacksonville area to Fernandina Beach with areas of fog near Gainesville east to Palatka and south to and Ocala and patchy to areas of fog may spread eastward to St Augustine through sunrise. Showers will slowly break down in coverage and become more isolated through the morning hours as the cold front slides down into the area with low overcast skies along and ahead of the front and gradual clearing behind the front this afternoon over SE GA. Patchy to areas will lift by the late morning hours south of I-10 over NE FL and as the front slows it's progress and stalls over north central FL. Winds will veer northerly and then north northeast behind the front with breezy winds at the coast 10-20 mph and around 10 mph or less inland. Highs will be coolest over SE GA with mid 60s as high pressure builds to the northwest behind the front and then to the north late in the afternoon with warmer highs just behind the front in the low to mid 70s over NE FL and upper 70s along the front over north central FL while Jacksonville and the I-10 corridor only reaches the upper 60s and endures overcast skies for a majority of the day. Tonight the high will build north over the Carolina piedmont while an inverted trough forms over the NE FL coastal waters. Some showers will develop, but mainly stay offshore as mid level shortwave energy streams over the east coast of FL. Winds will become northeasterly and remain breezy at the coast overnight with mostly cloudy skies south of I-10 along the remnants of the cold front. A gradient in lows will stretch across the area with low 40s over inland SE GA close to the Altamaha river and mid to upper 40s south of Waycross to the FL/GA state line with low 50s at the GA coast and mid to upper 50s for much of NE FL and low 60s at the Flagler county coast. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]... Monday: Zonal flow is forecast on Monday. An upper level shortwave will move east along the northern Gulf coast and over the area Monday night. At the surface, high pressure will settle over the Carolinas, and a coastal trough will also develop. Low level moisture is forecast to linger across northeast Florida, and an isolated shower is possible along the coast south of St. Augustine. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 60s across southeast Georgia and the 70s across northeast Florida. Northeasterly onshore flow will prevail, and overnight lows will be mild along the coast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Across the interior, lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across southeast Georgia and the mid to upper 50s to around 60 for northeast Florida. Tuesday: Flow aloft will become northwesterly to northerly as the shortwave trough exits to the east and upper level ridging begins to build towards the area from the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Northeasterly onshore flow will prevail. Temperatures will warm a couple degrees from Monday for highs and lows. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]... Upper level ridging will start the period across the western Gulf of Mexico, and then build across the area by the end of the week and then east of the area over the weekend. Surface high pressure will stretch from Maine southward across the Carolinas on Wednesday and then shift east southeastward through the end of the week to near Bermuda. East northeast low level flow on Wednesday is forecast to become easterly on Thursday and southeasterly by Saturday. A cold front may approach the area late Saturday into Sunday, and have low chances for showers across the area next Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal through the weekend. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] A mixture of MVFR to LIFR conditions from low ceilings are impacting the inland TAF sites KVQQ, KGNV, and KJAX while VFR conditions prevail at the coastal TAF sites farther ahead of incoming showers along a cold front moving southeast into the region tonight. Ceilings will lower and fog will increase in coverage from the Gulf of Mexico over the northeast florida sites while showers roll across the duval county terminals and KSSI by 08Z to 10Z time period with prevailing IFR to LIFR conditions sinking then farther south towards KSGJ. Showers will end from northwest to southeast, by 15Z across the duval county terminals with MVFR ceilings and then improving over the southern sites KGNV and KSGJ between 18Z and 21Z to at least MVFR ceilings. Winds will be gusty at the coastal terminals around 11 to 13 knots with gusts to near 20 knots from the north during the afternoon as high pressure build northwest of the region behind the front with winds near 10 knots at the inland sites from the north. The front will stall just south of the regional terminals with only KSSI likely to see a return to VFR conditions this afternoon through the end of the 06Z TAF period. && .MARINE... A cold front will move across the local waters through today. High pressure will strengthen north of the region tonight into Monday and Tuesday while a coastal trough develops offshore of the Atlantic coast. Onshore flow will increase late today into Monday with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines in place, then weaken mid-week as the surface high shifts farther south and builds offshore of the Carolina and mid Atlantic coast. Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL and SE GA beaches through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 41 67 46 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 51 66 55 69 / 10 0 10 10 10 JAX 68 53 70 56 71 / 20 10 10 10 10 SGJ 70 59 72 60 73 / 20 10 10 10 10 GNV 72 56 76 57 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 OCF 76 58 78 60 77 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&