906 FXUS64 KMOB 120040 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 640 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021 .NEAR TERM UPDATE...00Z surface analysis indicates that the leading edge of the cold front has pushed just east of the I-65 corridor, while the pre-frontal trough axis has finally advanced to the east of the local forecast area. The stronger convection that developed along and ahead of the trough axis has exited to the east of our forecast area as of 6 PM this evening. The associated low-end severe weather threat has ended across our region. Winds will continue to pick up from the northwest-north in the wake of the passing cold front this evening, while temperatures also continue to drop into the 40s and 50s by late in the evening. Overnight lows still look on track to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s over interior southeast MS and southwest AL and in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the rest of southwest/south central AL and the western FL panhandle. A lingering plume of moisture/ascent along and behind the cold front will result in the development of scattered rain showers through the remainder of this evening, but rain chances should end after midnight as a drier airmass advects into the area. /21 && .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Broken low to mid level cloud decks will continue to spread across the region through the remainder of the evening. Ceilings will mostly be VFR with bases between 3-10 kft AGL, but there could be periods of MVFR ceilings with ceilings between 1500-3000 ft AGL lingering across portions of southwest and south central AL and into the western FL panhandle for the next few hours. Ceilings should continue to lift to mid/high level decks late tonight, with clearing skies expected on Sunday. Winds will become NW-N 8-13 knots with a few possible gusts up to around 20 knots tonight in the wake of the passing cold front. /21 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...A cold front continues to make steady progess southeastward across the area this afternoon and will likely be completely out of the area by early this evening. Ahead of the front, showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop and track northeast. Temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 with dewpoints in the low 70s is creating an unstable airmass, which along with 0-1km SRH of 100-150m^2/s^2, is causing some weak rotation in the showers and storms. While the overall severe weather threat is low, an isolated severe storm with damaging winds/isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out for the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat will end with frontal passage, as a much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area. Lows tonight will be much colder, with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s inland to near 50 along the coast. Dry and much colder conditions expected on Sunday with clearing skies during the morning and highs only in the mid/upper 50s inland to mid 60s near the coast. /13 SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...Dry conditions expected through the short term. Aloft, weak ridging persists over the region through much of the period, minus a brief weak shortwave that moves across the region on Monday. Even with this, the atmosphere remains fairly dry, thus only expecting some passing clouds overhead on Monday. By Tuesday and going into the extended, a ridge of high pressure located across the western and central Gulf will gradually build northeastward across the north central Gulf Coast region and southeastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure continues to dominate the southeast CONUS, with ridging nosing into our region from the northeast as high pressure remains rooted over the lower Appalachian's. This results in a mainly easterly flow to persist over the region through the period. With this we go into temperatures through the period which exhibit a warming trend. Sunday night lows will be the chilliest, with mid 30s to low 40s along and northwest of I-65, and mid to upper 40s southeast, except at the immediate coast where near 50 degrees is expected. On Monday night, lows begin to warm into mainly the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Finally by Tuesday night, lows will be in the low to upper 50s across the region. High temps follow suit, with mainly upper 60s to some low 70s across the area on Monday, increasing to the mainly the mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon. Lastly, a MODERATE risk of rip currents Sunday night will be followed by a LOW risk beginning on Monday. JEH/88 EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Ridging aloft continues to build northeastward into the region through Thursday. By Thursday night, it begins to shift east across the FL peninsula, and adjacent western Atlantic by Friday. Southwest flow aloft returns to the region late Thursday night into Friday as another trough over the western CONUS digs and amplifies while moving east into the Four Corners region. Friday night into Saturday, flow aloft looks to split with the aforementioned shortwave remaining over the Four Corners region, and a secondary shortwave breaking off and tracking east across the midwest through the end of the period. In the low levels, ridging continues to remain dominate through Thursday before gradually weakening as another cold front in association with the secondary shortwave looks to potentially come through next weekend based on current guidance. All this said, dry conditions remain through the first half of the extended, with an unsettled pattern possibly returning by next weekend. Current guidance shows increasing moisture through the weekend, with shortwave energy embedded within the southwest flow aloft ahead of the deepening western U.S. trough. Additionally, a surface low over the Great Lakes forms in association with the secondary shortwave splitting off, and a cold front extending south into the lower MS river valley on Saturday. This said, rain chances begin to gradually increase Friday afternoon into Saturday based on the aforementioned pattern and current trends. Now lets talk temps through the period. First, high temps remain generally in the mid to upper 70s through Friday. With clouds increasing Friday in Saturday, expecting highs on Saturday to range in the low to mid 70s. Low temps generally remain in the mid to upper 50s inland, with upper 50s to low 60s down closer to the coast through the period. Given the warmer and dry conditions, and light east-southeast surface flow, the only other impact we could see would be some patchy light night and early morning fog during the period. JEH/88 MARINE...Moderate to strong offshore flow will develop tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front. Winds and seas decrease through Sunday as high pressure moves north of the marine area. An easterly flow will then prevail through much of next week. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST Sunday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632-650- 655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob