187 
FXUS64 KTSA 110328
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 923 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

The line of severe thunderstorms has exited our area 
to the east and the Tornado Watch has now been cancelled
for the entire area. The cold front is currently near a 
Jay,Oklahoma to Ada, Oklahoma line. The front will continue 
to surge to the east-southeast and should be out of the 
area as  we move into the early morning hours of Saturday. 
Have made some adjustments to the grids for tonight to 
better reflect current trends. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

The coolest day of the extended period will clearly be Saturday
behind the exiting front with temps struggling to reach the 50s.
Midlevel clouds hanging around southern OK may help to hold temps
back some there too. Dry return flow begins on Sunday along with a
gradual warmup which will accelerate by Tue with highs again near
record values. Winds will become gusty in the afternoon Sunday with
RH values dropping sufficiently for low fire weather concerns
though afternoon heating will be limited. Winds will continue to 
strengthen into the middle of next week as the pressure gradient 
increases ahead of a long wave trough digging along the western US
coast. This system is forecast to continue to deepen and dig far 
enough south to bring some meaningful rain chances into the 
forecast next week. Ensemble guidance is fairly similar in taking
the system close enough for forcing and instability to spread 
into the area by Wed with a cold front to follow on Thu keeping 
rain chances in play. Guidance then begins to diverge on how far 
south the front moves and if it hangs up somewhere in the vicinity
of the area, enough to keep decent rain chances through the end 
of the extended. Have opted to keep going forecast with at least 
chance PoP from mid- week on with thunder chances accompanying the
expected frontal passage and lingering across much of the area into
Fri. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will remain possible 
through 03Z at northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Otherwise, strong 
and gusty southwest winds will shift to the northwest with FROPA 
with clearing skies from west to east this evening. Winds will 
begin to decrease Saturday morning as surface high pressure builds
over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  52  32  59 /  10   0   0   0 
FSM   40  52  29  59 /  10   0   0   0 
MLC   36  52  30  57 /  10   0   0   0 
BVO   32  52  30  58 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   33  49  26  56 /  10   0   0   0 
BYV   33  47  31  55 /  20   0   0   0 
MKO   35  50  30  56 /  10   0   0   0 
MIO   33  50  32  56 /  10   0   0   0 
F10   35  52  30  57 /  10   0   0   0 
HHW   40  52  30  56 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12