037 FXUS64 KMAF 100916 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 316 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Dec 9 2021 Prevailing VFR expected at all terminals. LLWS progs have highest potential over KMAF currently, but expected to have little in the way of directional shear <2k ft with lighter winds at the surface. Conditions should improve by 08z with no LLWS expected beyond that short time frame. Elevated W/SW winds will encompass the area today with KCNM becoming gusty prior to 12z with all other terminals following after 16z. Gusts >35kts will be common everywhere b/w 18-23z today with 40-45kts potential at the SE NM terminals and KMAF/KPEQ at peak. Sustained will be b/w 20-30kts for several hrs as well (17-00z). Winds will veer out of W beyond 00z with further veering anticipated after TAF cycle out of the NW due to expected fropa. Areas of BLDU likely during peak winds, especially SE NM sites and KMAF/KINK. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 An active setup in the works thanks to an increasingly meridional longwave pattern and accompanying strengthening surface low over the plains. This morning will continue to see a broken cirrus shield over the forecast area which in combo with the elevated wind component will keep low temps very-mild areawide. In fact, temps on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal for lows will place much of the area close to the 90th percentile for lows this AM (Widespread 50s). As we progress through sunrise into the late-AM time frame, we'll notice an uptick in the winds areawide, especially for west of the Pecos river where a strong 500-700mb wind field on the base of the trough passing overhead will enhance early prospects at the beginning of diurnal mixing. Have maintained the previous forecast focus of Wind Advisory for the plains, but have decided to include the Davis Mtns in the High Wind Warning along with the Guadalupes as a 700mb jet streak on the southern edge will provide a period of high winds >52kts for areas above 6k ft btwn 12-18z. This puts the McDonald Observatory within the reason of high wind criteria with borderline high winds for Fort Davis. Adjacent areas should remain below high wind justification, but gusty W/SW winds will still provide sufficient potential to meet advisory criteria, so will stick with the previous hazard dissemination. The afternoon time frame is the peak of the wind field areawide as the trough axis pivots eastward and the core of the 500mb jet navigates over West TX mid-day. We'll also see a significant drying in the mid to upper levels beyond 18z which will lead to increased breaks, and even some clearing to occur downstream of the upper trough. This will induce more deep layer mixing to tap into the higher mean winds from 500-700mb. This puts the Permian Basin and SE NM plains within the highest winds for the day, outside the Guadalupes, as winds will be consistently >25 mph with gusts btwn 45-55 mph through mid-afternoon. Expect the strongest winds to occur between the 18-21z time frame for areas like Carlsbad/Pecos/Hobbs and the 20-23z time frame for areas like Midland/Odessa/Big Spring as the jet streak presses eastward. Areas of blowing dust will be common during peak winds, so made sure to keep those in the grids considering the core of the winds will be moving over the area traditionally known to have higher dust potential, and the fact we've been so dry that the grounds are ripe for dust generation. Wind Advisory for most of the plains and High Wind Warning in the Davis Mtns will both expire around sunset, but will maintain advisory for Culberson Co and the warning for the Guadalupes until a few hrs after sunset as the trailing jet lags a bit behind the core and should keep winds up a bit longer at elevation. The other story for the area will be an increased threat to fire weather over portions of SE NM and the northern half of the Permian Basin (More information in the Fire Weather Disco below). After sunset, a progressive cold front on the tail end of the low bombing out over the plains will sweep southeast into the area with cooler temps and a much drier airmass in its wake. Highs this afternoon will range from the 60s west of a line from Van Horn-Carlsbad- Seminole with 70s to the east. Lows Saturday morning will be crisp thanks to the post frontal airmass as temps will drop into the 20s over the far northern tier and 30s/40s to the south and east. Highs will struggle to get out of the 50s for most of the region on Saturday despite clear skies due to the below normal boundary layer temps that settle overhead. Winds will at least be significantly lower, so we won't have to deal with a parade of dust or cold wind chills. Precip chances are next to nil unfortunately, so we won't get any relief the next 36 hrs for the drought. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Underneath low amplitude mid-level ridging warmer wx will return Sun PM with high temps 5-10 degrees above normal. Thereafter mid-level flow will back to sw and the low-level thermal ridge will edge ewd a little each day maximizing on Wed as a strong closed mid-level low moves out of CO into the cntrl plains and breezy-windy conditions are possible across much of the CWFA. Only slight cooling will follow the trough on Thu. There will be much colder air the n, but we are not sure if arrives Fri or Sat. SW flow aloft and shallow cold air will favor an isentropic ascent set up with the possibility of precip Fr-Sat. Models do generate precip with initial indications of sufficiently deep layer mstr along with a favorable location of the upper level jet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 259 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 There is a complicated fire wx set up today as a mid-level trof passes to the n and the assocd strong low/mid-level wind fields rake the area, including a few high based virga showers this morning across the far w. The driest air will come out well to the n of the PB/SE NM plains this afternoon and with the low-level thermal ridge just e of the ern PB minimum RH will struggle to fall below 20 pct. So as we try to match the wind/rh/fuels the result in sort of an atypical set up. Still, we can resolve many of the issues using the RFTI and ERC nomogram to guide our warning decision. Based on the wind component alone the RFTI maximums will largely fall into the 3-4 (near critical) range with the ERC around the 70th percentile. Very dry air will pour into Chaves Co, northern Lea Co, and the NW PB late in the day. The ern area of PB will be in the closest proximity to the windward side of the low-level thermal ridge. These areas are best co-located with ERC percentiles around the 70th and where TAMFS Significant Fire Potential indicates high. As such we have upgraded to Red Flag warning for Chaves, Lea, and northern 2 tiers of counties in the PB, basically n of I-20. Elsewhere we have cancelled the watch, however we want emphasize that winds in the unwarned areas will still be strong. The cooler temps/higher RHs mitigate concerns somewhat. IA potential will be high across all the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 35 56 30 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 69 32 56 28 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 83 46 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 37 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 32 50 35 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 66 30 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 65 31 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 74 35 56 30 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 73 36 56 33 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 73 32 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry- Ward-Winkler. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard- Martin-Mitchell-Scurry. High Wind Warning until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for Davis Mountains. NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-Lea. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$