201 FXUS62 KTAE 032013 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 313 PM EST Fri Dec 3 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]... Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place over the northeastern Gulf through Saturday. Across the upper levels, a strung out shortwave vorticity streamer is expected to propagate across the northern Gulf states during the day on Saturday. This will likely provide some forcing for ascent, and subsequent precipitation to the north of our area in central Alabama and Georgia on Saturday. Even though this shortwave will have relatively close proximity to the region, dry air aloft through the 400-700mb layer will remain in place across the forecast area. This will effectively evaporate any precipitation that attempts to fall across the area. Extensive cloud cover throughout the morning hours, and part of the afternoon will likely keep temperatures slightly cooler, with highs topping out in the mid 70s. Overall the main concern, will be the persistent development of fog once again overnight tonight and into Saturday morning. With a thicker upper level cloud deck expected to be draped across the area, the fog may linger slightly longer through the morning than previous days. Fog in the morning will be dense at times across the entire forecast area. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]... Through the end of the weekend, and the early portion of the work week, model guidance continues to suggest that the potential for fog in the overnight and early morning hours will continue to be a possibility. Across the upper levels, a rather robust upper level trough is expected to propagate through the Ohio valley on Monday. A surface low pressure system associated with this upper level trough is expected to propagate to the northeast through southeastern Canada. A cold front in conjunction with the surface low is expected to drape across the southeast Texas towards the Ohio valley. As the front approaches the region on Monday night and Tuesday, it is forecast to stall just north of the area as upper level support pulls too far north and east. Surface high pressure is expected to build in briefly on Tuesday prior to another strung out upper level shortwave moves into the region from northern Mexico and central Texas. Once again, rain chances will remain across SE Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle on Wednesday; however, a second more robust upper level trough is expected to quickly move into the region from Arizona and New Mexico by late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring the regions best chances for rain in over a month. At this time, the threat for severe weather is present, but marginal given the somewhat unstable environment, and robustness of the second shortwave vorticity maxima. By Friday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle back into the region. Overall, high temperatures will continue to remain above normal, with low to mid 70s forecast through the entire long term period. Low temperatures will generally remain warm as well, with low 50s earlier in the week transitioning to low 60s through the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Saturday] A stable air mass with light winds and a moist boundary layer will again set the stage for late night and early morning fog development, followed by fog burnoff 1-3 hours after sunrise. The latest round of TAFs closely follow a persistence forecast. In other words, what happened last night will happen again tonight, in terms of visibility/ceiling reductions and the timing of those conditions. && .MARINE... High pressure will be centered over the northeast Gulf through Saturday, leading to light winds across all waters. Patches of fog will be possible late tonight and Saturday morning over the cooler nearshore waters of Apalachee Bay, which may lead to another marine dense fog advisory for that time period. Winds are expected to transition out of the southeast and south on Sunday in advance of a cold front that will make headway into the Southeast. That front will dissipate as it enters the northeast Gulf on Monday evening, with a quick return to moderate southeasterly winds on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Mixing heights and light winds will once again lead to low dispersions across the entire area through the weekend. Fog will also a be a big issue as widespread dense fog is expected to form Saturday morning once again. These areas of fog will be slow to dissipate in the morning hours, and could lead to visibility issues with burns near major roadways. Beyond these concerns, minimum RH values are forecast to be in the 60s through the weekend. Therefore, even though it has been very dry over the last month, there are no pressing fire weather concerns at this time given the light winds and high RH values. && .HYDROLOGY... No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Rivers are currently running near base flow, so they will be able to handle the chance of rain around the middle of next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 52 73 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 57 72 56 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 51 73 51 72 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 74 50 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 50 74 51 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 52 72 51 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 56 71 55 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Montgomery