152 FXUS64 KTSA 021616 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 Mixing is well underway this morning with temperatures starting to really jump up over the last hour. The airport in Fayetteville saw a jump from 49 to 66 between observations. This is largely due to low level atmospheric mixing and SWly winds at the surface. Other sites across Oklahoma and Arkansas saw similar jumps with temperatures moving upward as much as 30 degrees over the past 3 hours. The rest of the day will be sunny and warm with temperatures near or exceeding record level this afternoon. The monthly high for December in Tulsa (80) will be threatened this afternoon. The overall forecast appears to be largely on track though a small adjustment upward for temperatures (generally one to 2 degrees) was accounted for based on the latest trends. Snider && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 406 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 Low level moisture return spreads northward across the region overnight tonight which will help to keep lows warmer across much of the CWA. Temps look to fall through the late evening hours before holding near steady or slightly warming from south to north late tonight. The coldest locations look to be near the Kansas border and also far Northwest Arkansas ahead of the moisture return with lows in the mid 40s. Otherwise...lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s are forecast elsewhere for the CWA. Above seasonal average temperatures continue Friday. However...with increasing cloud cover ahead of a shortwave and associated frontal boundary nearing the region...temps are forecast to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. This frontal boundary is progged to reach Northeast Oklahoma Friday late afternoon/evening and hold across Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas into the weekend. There remains some uncertainty with latest model runs on just how far south this boundary travels over the CWA. For this forecast current thinking is that it remains north of Interstate 40 through Saturday before the main cold front pushes through Sunday afternoon/evening. In response...rain chances along with slight chances for thunderstorms will become possible overnight Friday night and continuing through Sunday before the cold front finally exits the region. The greater potential for precip Friday night into Saturday looks to be more east/southeast of the CWA as a vort max lifts northeast across Eastern Texas into Central Arkansas. Per consensus with latest ensemble data...Saturday night into Sunday looks to be the greater potential for precip across Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas as the low level jet increases over an area of warm advection ahead of the frontal boundary. Lesser precip chances will be possible across Northeast Oklahoma. Shower and thunderstorm chance finally taper off with the frontal passage and should exit Southeast Oklahoma Sunday night. Behind the cold front...gusty northerly winds transporting a colder airmass is forecast Sunday night. Winds should weaken Monday as the upper level trof axis departs the region. Temps Monday look to be more closer to the seasonal average. These conditions look to be short lived as gusty southerly winds return Monday night and Tuesday...with highs back above average Tuesday before another cold front is forecast to push through the region Tuesday night/Wednesday. There continues to be a spread in the data among the extended model solutions with the next week cold front and low pressure system. Have leaned more toward the more consistent ECMWF for details with the front moving through and clearing the CWA Tuesday night. Moisture return looks to be greater east of the CWA ahead of the front and for now will continue to carry small PoPs over far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Tuesday night. This will continue to be monitored as latest data come in. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 Light south to southwest winds will continue today with VFR conditions expected through tonight. Low clouds will begin to spread into southeast Oklahoma Friday morning, which is just outside the current TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 51 76 50 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 77 49 76 55 / 0 0 0 30 MLC 78 54 76 56 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 78 44 75 45 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 75 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 75 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 76 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 75 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 10 F10 78 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 77 53 75 57 / 0 0 0 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 51 76 50 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 77 49 76 55 / 0 0 0 30 MLC 78 54 76 56 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 79 44 75 45 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 77 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 75 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 76 50 75 52 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 75 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 10 F10 78 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 77 53 75 57 / 0 0 0 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...12