779 
FXUS64 KTSA 262303
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

The return of southerly winds today, with the surface high
shifting south and east of the area, will lead to a warmer
temperatures overnight than those seen last night. Some increase
in high cloud cover can be expected toward morning in far
southeast Oklahoma. Overall, a quiet night is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

Above normal temperatures are expected areawide tomorrow, in
advance of a cold front that will move through the area late
tomorrow and tomorrow night. The warmest temperatures will likely
be across northeast Oklahoma given the location of the pre-frontal
warm nose and limiting factor of the increased cloud cover farther
south. Well ahead of the front, showers will increase during the 
day tomorrow, primarily across parts of Texas, in response to an 
upper low currently over the Baja lifting to the east-northeast 
toward the area. The northern extent of the showers is in some 
question, with a fairly tight gradient in model solutions near the
Red River. Given a southward model trend this morning, POPs will
be limited to far southeast Oklahoma, nearer the SuperBlend
values, with the current NBM POPs looking too high this far north.

Near normal temperatures will follow the front for Sunday, but 
the cooldown will be short lived as well above normal conditions 
arrive again Monday ahead of yet another front on Tuesday. The 
cooler air behind the Tuesday front will make only a glancing blow
to the region, only knocking afternoon temperatures back a couple
of degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday compared to those on Monday.

A much stronger front looks to move through in the Friday to
Saturday time frame, and this one should have enough moisture with
it to lead to some showers in the eastern half of the area as it
moves through. Ahead of this front, though, highs on Thursday
should be around 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the 
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  66  36  58 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   34  64  39  61 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   38  64  39  59 /   0   0  10   0 
BVO   31  67  33  57 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   33  63  34  57 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   39  64  36  55 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   36  64  37  56 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   36  63  34  55 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   38  66  38  58 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   34  61  41  61 /   0  20  30   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23