269 FXUS64 KEPZ 242350 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 450 PM MST Wed Nov 24 2021 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Prevailing VFR conditions, but with short-term local MVFR through the TAF period. Clouds generally increasing through 18Z. Skies SCT-BKN080-120. Winds will shift to north/northeast with FROPA at ~05Z (KTCS), ~09Z (KELP, KLRU), and ~10Z (KDMN). BTWN 09-16Z winds will be 030-070 at 15-20G25-30KT with higher gusts possible. No reduction to VIS is expected during and after FROPA. ISOL/SCT -SHRA ovr lowlands,-SHSN ovr area mountains through 19Z. In vcty of showers, expect lower CIGS to 050-070 and restricted VSBY to 1-3 SM. && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST Wed Nov 24 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered rain chances are expected this evening, especially in portions west of the Rio Grande. Any accumulations with this activity will be mostly light. Light snow is also possible over across the higher elevations of area mountains above 8500 ft. On Thanksgiving day, a backdoor cold front will bring breezy to windy conditions and colder temperatures. Rain chances, and light snow over the highest elevations of mountains remain in the forecast. Slight chances for precipitation continue through Saturday. A warm up trend will lead to above average temperatures by early next week. && 29 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thanksgiving Day... Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an expansive swath of mid-to-upper level moisture moving across the Desert Southwest. Visible satellite imagery confirms the presence of moisture with clouds moving across the forecast area associated with some scattered showers. Isolated/scattered showers will continue to move across southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Little to no impacts can be expected with these showers. Rainfall rates will be light through the afternoon hours, with most of the focus around the New Mexico Bootheel. This shower activity is associated with a positively tilted trough swinging across the Desert Southwest. As it continues to slightly strengthen/deepen, moisture will continue to advect into southern New Mexico and west Texas. The combination of moisture and modest upper level dynamics associated with this trough, isolated to scattered showers will spread eastward across the forecast area during the evening/overnight hours. At the surface, a cold front will push in from the northeast during the overnight hours (around 2-3 AM). This cold front will pack quite a punch as it moves through during the morning hours on Thanksgiving. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 2 AM to 11 AM for the west slopes of the Hueco and Franklin Mountains and portions of Hudspeth County and Otero Mesa. Winds will be 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. As the upper level low continues to meander to our southwest, isolated showers will be possible during the morning and early afternoon hours on Thanksgiving Day. It will not be a total washout by any means, rather, a few light showers can be expected. If you plan on heading out to the Thanksgiving Parade or any other festivities across the area, prepare for a cool, damp, and blustery morning. While the lowlands may experience some isolated rain showers, the mountains (above 7,500 feet) may experience some light snow. && 38 .LONG TERM...Thanksgiving Night through Tuesday Night... The long-term portion of the forecast starts with the exit of a backdoor cold front. As we lose the main source of lift, rain chances diminish overnight across the area. The intensity of the east to northeast winds decreases behind the frontal passage. A reduction in cloud cover along with the advection of cold air behind the frontal passage will lead to cold morning low temperatures. Most of the CWA is expected to go below freezing except for the El Paso Metro area, and possibly the lowlands of the Rio Grande Valley in Hudspeth County. However, temperatures in the aforementioned areas will be in the mid-30s. On Friday, the closed-low moves over the Baja California peninsula as it starts to track to the northeast. The moisture associated to this system remain very close to it, so we will not get to have much in the sense of rain showers until Friday night into Saturday. The low remains mostly over northern Chihuahua which will keep our rain chances close to the International Border. Again, the precipitation will be mostly rain and any accumulations are expected to be light. The uncertainty remains in how far north will the low go, this will decide how far north the clouds and rain chances will be. Thus, I kept higher chances in the southern half of the CWA and lower chances to account for the uncertainty to the north. As this system becomes an open wave and moves east we will be slowly drying out in the evening hours. Another backdoor cold front moves through on Saturday night and Sunday morning. However, this one is weaker, but deeper. The current model run indicates breezy to windy conditions, and slightly cooler temperatures. Early next week, the weather pattern will be influenced by the development of an upper ridge in western US. Thus, a warm trend is expected with temperatures above normal on Monday and Tuesday. However, global models are indicating the generation of a low underneath the ridge which may increase the cloud cover as it pulls on moisture from the East Pacific. && 29 .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will be zero across all zones over the next few days, as rain chances and moisture increase. Precipitation chances will increase this afternoon/evening and during the overnight hours, any precipitation that falls will be light. An upper level trough to our southwest will be the focus for isolated/scattered showers, as the system pulls in moisture from the south/southwest. While the lowlands experience isolated/scattered rain showers, the mountains (above 7,500 feet) could see some light snow. A strong cold front will move through the area during the morning hours on Thursday. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast, with cold air moving in behind the front. Winds will be above Red Flag criteria, but Min RH values will be 30-50% in the lowlands and 35-60% in the mountains. Friday will be quiet with no fire weather concerns. During the weekend, we will see a slight chance for rain across the forecast area with most of the focus towards the International Border. Temperatures will be below average tomorrow and Friday, but returning to normal (50s-low-60s) during the weekend and then rising back above normal into next week. Min RH values through the middle of next week will be 25-40% in the lowlands and 30-45% in the mountains with light afternoon breezes each day. Vent Rates will be Good to Poor through the weekend and the Fair to Poor for the first half of next week. && 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 56 35 58 / 30 30 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 50 31 54 / 30 30 0 10 Las Cruces 41 53 31 58 / 30 30 0 0 Alamogordo 38 56 29 60 / 30 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 20 35 20 44 / 30 30 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 52 31 58 / 30 30 0 0 Silver City 38 49 31 55 / 30 30 0 0 Deming 41 52 32 58 / 30 30 0 0 Lordsburg 41 53 31 59 / 30 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 56 38 59 / 30 30 0 0 Dell City 40 54 27 59 / 30 30 0 0 Fort Hancock 42 58 32 60 / 30 30 0 10 Loma Linda 38 48 33 54 / 30 30 0 0 Fabens 43 57 34 60 / 30 30 0 10 Santa Teresa 40 54 31 57 / 30 30 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 54 36 59 / 30 30 0 0 Jornada Range 41 52 26 57 / 30 30 0 0 Hatch 39 52 31 59 / 30 30 0 0 Columbus 41 53 34 57 / 30 30 0 0 Orogrande 41 55 31 59 / 30 30 0 0 Mayhill 24 43 24 57 / 30 30 0 0 Mescalero 24 45 21 54 / 30 30 0 0 Timberon 23 43 21 50 / 30 30 0 0 Winston 27 47 21 55 / 30 30 0 0 Hillsboro 36 49 32 57 / 30 30 0 0 Spaceport 38 52 28 58 / 30 30 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 51 23 59 / 30 30 0 0 Hurley 36 49 26 56 / 30 30 0 0 Cliff 33 61 20 65 / 30 30 0 0 Mule Creek 38 56 29 60 / 30 20 0 0 Faywood 36 48 31 55 / 30 30 0 0 Animas 41 53 30 58 / 30 30 0 0 Hachita 37 51 25 57 / 30 30 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 51 31 55 / 50 30 10 0 Cloverdale 38 47 33 52 / 50 30 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Thursday for NMZ417. TX...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Thursday for TXZ418-420-422. && $$ 38/29/14