438 FXUS65 KTFX 241712 CCA AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1011 AM MST Wed Nov 24 2021 ...Aviation Section Updated... .UPDATE... Made minor updates to PoPs/QPF to extend probabilities for snow into early to mid afternoon for eastern parts of north-central Montana in line with the GFS model, as it seems to be the only model generating any QPF with the last trailing shortwave energy associated with the overall trough passing through the region. Also began making edits to the winds and wind gusts grids in anticipation of possible upgrades to a High Wind Warning for the eastern slopes of the mountains for tonight through Thursday. && .SYNOPSIS... Light snow this morning is clearing away to the east, providing mostly clear skies this afternoon. Mild, dry and windy conditions return for Thanksgiving Day, with strong winds continuing into Friday. Light snow returns to the Continental Divide and portions of Southwest Montana later Friday into Friday night. && .AVIATION... 1011 AM MST Wed Nov 24 2021 (24/18Z TAF period) MVFR/IFR conditions linger for eastern terminals past 18z this morning with steady improvement through the afternoon as skies clear from north to south and west to east. Drier air moves into the region overnight into Thursday morning, with increasing downslope winds. KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next spring. Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM MST Wed Nov 24 2021/ Most of the overnight snow has exited to the east. However, a secondary portion of the upper level shortwave trough is moving across North-central Montana this morning. Light snow lingers under this feature. Short term model guidance indicates a few tenths of an inch additional snowfall before all snow ends through late morning. Winter Weather Advisories have been cancelled, as little to no new snowfall is expected in the areas where they were in effect. Roads remain icy or snow covered in many areas, so allow some extra time and drive with caution when heading out this morning. Dry and warmer air returns overnight into Thursday. Overall dry and windy conditions prevail for Thanksgiving Day, with well-above normal temperatures. High Wind Watches are in effect for the Rocky Mountain Front and portions of North-central Montana where wind gusts could exceed 60 mph. The broad upper level ridge in place over the region begins to flatten to a more westerly flow on Friday. A weak shortwave embedded in this westerly flow will produce some weak instability and orographic lift to produce light snow along the Continental Divide later Friday into Friday night, later spreading through far Southwest Montana. This could produce minor impacts to holiday weekend travel over Marias or Rogers Passes, and a few locations in the Southwest. Once this minor disturbance passes through, overall model ensembles describe a mild, mainly dry, and windy pattern that persists well through the middle of next week. Sunday has the potential to be a particularly windy day. There may be some periods of mainly mountain snow as weak disturbances move through the strong westerly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 38 28 51 42 / 20 0 10 0 CTB 36 26 46 37 / 10 0 10 10 HLN 40 24 50 35 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 38 18 45 28 / 20 0 0 0 WYS 28 9 29 13 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 35 18 43 26 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 33 20 49 38 / 40 0 0 0 LWT 33 20 51 40 / 50 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from this evening through Thursday evening Eastern Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening Cascade...Chouteau...Judith Basin. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls