260 FXUS63 KOAX 230857 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 257 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021 ...Updated Forecast Discussion Today through Monday... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021 Forecast Summary: Gusty south winds today will drive temperatures to or above 60 in most of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. However a drastic cooldown will follow as a cold front moves through Wednesday, resulting in a pretty chilly Thanksgiving. A moderation in temperatures is expected for the weekend. Today through Thursday: Mid level ridging is forecast to make a brief appearance in the Central Plains today before a deep northeast-southwest oriented trough swings through the region Wednesday into Thursday. Plenty of sunshine combined with increasing south to southwest winds under warm air aloft in ridge axis will help warm temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above normal today. Winds turn southwesterly in central through northeast Nebraska this afternoon as weak mid level wave races northeast through South Dakota. The result will be deeper mixing there, warming temperatures and drying surface dew points. Thus low relative humidity and gusty wind will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions in parts of northeast Nebraska. Already have a Red Flag Warning going there, and see no reason to make changes to that. As upper trough approaches tonight, initial surface wind shift is expected into northeast Nebraska before sunrise, then through the rest of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa by mid to late afternoon. Strongest cold advection will lag front by several hours, so we'll likely rebound from morning lows before temps become steady or start to fall in the afternoon. The coldest air with this system is forecast to settle across our area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with continued northerly low level flow making most of Thanksgiving Day quite chilly despite plenty of sunshine. Friday through Monday: Some degree of northwesterly mid level flow is advertised by a majority of longer range models and their ensemble members through the weekend. Some rebound in temperatures, surface and aloft, will spread into our region during this time. However substantial warming is not expected given a general north or northwest surface wind much of the period brought on by a couple of shortwaves diving through the main flow. The first of those waves will slide east of our area on Friday, and could lag enough to allow southerly surface winds to sustain through Friday afternoon. The second wave is advertised to move overhead on Saturday, and there has been some degree of model consistency in this solution the last few days. This would bring our best shot at precipitation during this 7-day forecast period, but predictability is low given a wide spread between ensemble forecasts. Thus we will continue a dry forecast for Saturday for now. If precipitation does occur, it should be a quick shot of light rain in a moisture- deprived atmosphere. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Nov 22 2021 LLWS remains main aviation issue at KOMA/KLNK Tuesday morning roughly between 12-15z. LLWS threat returns then Tuesday evening and this time at all terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-016-017-030-031. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dergan AVIATION...DEE