265 FXUS61 KBTV 221801 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 101 PM EST Mon Nov 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... After a pleasant Sunday, an upper level trough and approaching cold front will bring increasing clouds and periods of showers to the North Country early this morning. Precipitation will end late this afternoon as scattered snow showers across higher terrain areas, with light accumulations possible in the mountains. Breezy conditions are also expected today. Temperatures will trend colder for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 30s. That said, high pressure building across the region is expected to provide dry weather and good travel conditions Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures should moderate back into the 40s in valley locations on Thanksgiving Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 101 PM EST Monday...Chilly air has arrived today behind the cold front which is now through all of the region except far southeastern Windsor County based on the GOES-16 Day Land Cloud RGB product and surface dew point and wind observations. Wind chills are in the 20s across much of northern New York and low 30s over northern Vermont. With stratocumulus clouds streaming in from the west this afternoon behind the front, expect breezy and mostly cloudy conditions to continue through sunset. Minor adjustments were made to sky cover and winds, but overall forecast remains in good shape. Previous Discussion... Light rain continues across portions of Vermont early this morning, though the bulk of it has exited to the east. Rainfall totals with this first wave of warm frontal precipitation have been unimpressive, ranging from a few hundredths up to one tenth of an inch. Satellite water vapor imagery reveals an abundance of dry air upstream which has caused a break in rainfall. This has allowed stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface, and gusts across northern New York and the Champlain Valley are currently in the 20- 25 mph range. Meanwhile, a cold front is currently trekking across northern New York, and a narrow swath of light to moderate rain showers are focused along this boundary. This front will continue to push eastward throughout the day bringing additional chances for rainfall along with it. Winds will become westerly in the wake of the front and gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible due to a deep mixed layer as temperatures cool aloft. Temperatures will fall throughout the day, dropping into the 30s by afternoon. Any lingering precipitation will transition to snow showers, but by this point, precipitation chances will be decreasing as moisture is lost and the front weakens. The locations most likely to see snow showers this afternoon will be downwind of Lake Ontario in New York and the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont. Only a dusting of snow is expected for these areas. Dry weather will then follow late tonight into Tuesday as surface high pressure begins to nose into the region. Winds will become northwesterly, ushering in much cooler temperatures for the overnight hours. Lows are expected to be in the teens to mid 20s. Paired with northwest winds of 5-10 mph, we could see wind chills early Tuesday morning in the teens to single digits for portions of the Adirondacks. The cool and dry trend continues for Tuesday as high pressure settles across the region, and high temperatures will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 428 AM EST Monday...High pressure builds right over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Clear skies and light winds Tuesday night will lead to low temperatures falling into the teens to lower 20s. Plenty of sunshine on Wednesday and continued light winds will allow for highs to rebound back into the 30s to around 40. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 428 AM EST Monday...Still not expecting any significant weather on Thanksgiving with dry weather and highs in the 40s. There will be a change Thursday night through Saturday as an approaching upper trough Thursday night will close off over the region by Friday night and only reach the Maine New Brunswick area by Saturday. This scenario will bring rain and snow to the area later Thursday night into Friday with the mountains having the best chance for snow. Have raised precipitation chances into the likely category for most of the area during this time period. The upper low positioned over Maine and New Brunswick by Saturday is important for our weather as this would set up a favorable pattern for upslope precipitation. Deterministic and probabilistic data points to this idea and have upped precipitation chances Friday night and Saturday as a result. Upper low moves northeast Saturday night and Sunday and this will gradually bring an end to the upslope precipitation. If there is one thing to continue to monitor in the extended period it will be the Friday/Saturday period for the upslope precipitation as temperatures would be cold enough for most areas to see some snow, with the best chances for accumulating snow in the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Behind the cold front this afternoon, ceilings remain near MVFR threshold at MPV and RUT but these sites should trend VFR as areas to their west have done. Upstream observations of 3500 to 4500 foot ceilings are indicative of the conditions for the rest of the day before clouds scatter with high pressure building towards the region. Gusts in the 15 to 25 knot range will quickly subside after 22Z with continued west to northwest flow overnight. Some 15 to 20 knot gusts in the northwest flow will resume at MPV after 15Z with otherwise winds generally in the 8 to 12 knot range across the airspace after sunrise. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thanksgiving Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for this morning. South winds will remain gusty ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts up to 30kt possible. The cold front will pass through around mid-day, allowing winds to shift into the WSW and decreasing to 10-20kt by afternoon. Peak winds should be early this morning. Waves will build to 2-4ft, and locally up to 5ft for a brief time during the morning hours south of Grand Isle. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/Hammond NEAR TERM...Hammond/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Hammond/Kutikoff MARINE...Banacos/Hammond