425 FXUS65 KTFX 201139 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 440 AM MST Sat Nov 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Any remaining precipitation over mountains and in Southwest Montana will diminish this morning. Winds will increase and become gusty at times over the plains of Central and North-central Montana this afternoon. Winds will then subside tonight, but become gusty again Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... A weak shortwave will exit the region this morning. The exiting wave will allow for any remaining areas of precipitation to diminish through the morning hours. Behind the exiting shortwave, winds are expected to increase this afternoon along the Rocky Mountain Front and into the plains. Bufkit soundings show stability near ridgetops, but winds just above the surface are not too impressive, which will limit potential gusts in most areas. Winds across the plains are expected to gust from 35 to 50 miles per hour, with stronger gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front. Overall, winds are expected to remain at nuisance-level Saturday. Surface winds will subside overnight, but resume Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching ridge of high pressure. Gusts Sunday afternoon into Monday will be a touch stronger than Saturday, but are still expected to remain at nuisance levels. As the upper-level ridge axis moves overhead Monday, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 50's to lower 60's F across much of the plains. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the lower 20's and locally into the upper teens Monday on the plains, promoting elevated fire weather concerns. Tuesday through Saturday... The upper-level ridge responsible for above average temperatures Monday will quickly exit eastward Tuesday, ahead of an approaching upper trough. The upper trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday, eventually passing overhead Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. High temperatures will cool by approximately 10 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday, which would put the region at just about average for this time of the year on Wednesday. Precipitation associated with the trough is expected to be confined primarily to the Continental Divide and areas favorable for orographically forced precipitation in a west to southwest wind across Southwest and Central Montana, but a few areas of precipitation may make it onto the plains Tuesday afternoon. After Wednesday, a brief ridge builds overhead for Thanksgiving, before flattening out towards next weekend. Shortwaves traversing through zonal flow may allow for precipitation primarily along the Continental Divide and in Southwest Montana late next week, but I do not have enough confidence to pinpoint any day over another that is more favorable for precipitation. For that reason, I have opted to stick with the National Blend of Models late next week. -AM && .AVIATION... 440 AM MST Sat Nov 20 2021 (20/12Z TAF period) Any remaining precipitation around mountains or in Southwest Montana will diminish this morning. VFR conditions will prevail across the region this TAF period, except early this morning across Southwest Montana, specifically KEKS, where MVFR conditions will be likely at times. As a result of gusty winds across the plains this afternoon, low-level wind shear will be possible late today, but confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs. Mountains are likely to be obscured in Southwest Montana until the afternoon. -AM KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next spring. Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 45 24 50 37 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 41 20 43 31 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 46 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 45 20 46 23 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 34 15 31 13 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 42 20 44 23 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 17 42 28 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 44 20 46 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls