693 FXUS64 KAMA 190507 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1107 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z Issuance...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Winds remain breezy overnight and will increase after 15Z with gusts around 30-35kts. Wind shear at DHT and GUY will persist tonight and then come around again for AMA and DHT tomorrow night. Beat && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 PM CST Thu Nov 18 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night... Northwest flow behind the cold front will transition to more zonal flow this evening into Friday. Cross barrier flow over the eastern NM/CO mountains will allow for a lee surface low to set up on Friday. Surface gradients will tighten and southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will be in play most of the day on Friday. Temperatures tonight will fall to freezing or slightly below in most areas. However, it will not be as cold Friday morning as it was this morning, where some areas dropped into the teens. With the zonal flow in place on Friday warmer air moving in will allow for temperatures to climb into the 60s across most of the area. Weber FIRE WEATHER...Friday Afternoon... Lee surface low to set up in southeast Colorado on Friday. Tight surface gradients will set up and breezy winds 15-25 mph can be expected, with RH values in the 10-20% range. The lower RH values will be closer to the center of the low in the northwest, and therefore will have much lighter winds, while the stronger winds will be in the central to southeast which has higher RH values. Thus, expect to avoid critical Fire Weather conditions given that the worst conditions will not line up together. Weber LONG TERM... An upper level disturbance moving southeast from the intermountain west will help to bring a cold front across the Panhandles Saturday afternoon. No precipitation is expected with this system given its positive tilt that will tend to shunt all of the precipitation to our east. The Panhandles will remain in a dry northwest flow aloft for Sunday and Monday before an upper level ridge moves across the region Monday night and Tuesday. An upper level trough will start to develop across the western U.S. by Tuesday. This will help to increase our winds on the surface as heights fall across the Rockies. The models are starting to agree that an upper level low will pinch off near Baja California by Thursday. This will tend to push back our precip chances to beyond this forecast. High temperatures Saturday through Wednesday are expected to be generally above normal except Sunday where temperatures may be a few degrees below normal behind the cold front. && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 16/5