902 
FXUS64 KTSA 152330
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This Tonight)
Issued at 119 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Warm and breezy this afternoon with temperatures climbing into 
the lower 70s in many areas under mostly sunny skies. Mild 
conditions expected overnight as light south winds continue with 
only a few passing high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Unseasonably warm/windy conditions are forecast into the day Tuesday
ahead of next cold front that will move into northeast Oklahoma 
Wednesday morning. A warm start is expected in advance of front
with temperatures only falling into the upper 50s to around 60 
for much of southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. 

Frontal boundary will push to near the I-44 corridor by noon on 
Wednesday with scattered light showers develop ahead/behind cold 
front. Very limited surface based instability is expected, but a 
thunderstorm or two may still be possible Wednesday afternoon as 
the front pushes into SE OK/NW AR. Significantly cooler/breezy 
weather expected across NE OK behind the front with temperatures 
falling through the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances will 
end from northwest to southeast with showers pushing south of the 
area Wednesday evening. 

After a light freeze in some locations Friday morning, a few scattered
showers will again be possible Saturday night into Sunday with the next
cold front. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain generally near 
normal. Stayed fairly close to NBM guidance through the extended 
periods. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South
winds will gust to over 20 knots at times during the day Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  77  59  67 /   0   0   0  20 
FSM   51  79  59  74 /   0   0   0  20 
MLC   54  76  61  73 /   0   0   0  10 
BVO   45  75  52  65 /   0   0   0  20 
FYV   49  75  56  69 /   0   0   0  40 
BYV   51  75  58  68 /   0   0   0  50 
MKO   49  75  60  70 /   0   0   0  10 
MIO   47  74  56  65 /   0   0   0  40 
F10   51  76  59  71 /   0   0   0  10 
HHW   55  76  60  75 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05