613 FXUS62 KRAH 151939 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure across the Tennessee Valley will shift east across the region this afternoon and settle across the eastern Carolinas by daybreak Tuesday. The surface high will shift offshore on Tuesday with a mild southwesterly flow developing for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will approach the area from the west late Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Monday... ...Frost Advisory in effect for Sampson and Cumberland Counties tonight... The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving off the Carolina coast. A 1024 mb surface high pressure system centered near TN/AL will shift east this evening and become centered along the Carolina and GA coast by daybreak Tuesday. Cold advection has been ongoing across central NC today with west to northwest winds at around 10 mph with some gusts in excess of 25 mph. The air mass is much drier with surface dew points in the lower 20s across just about all of central NC, the driest airmass of the season. Skies are mainly clear with just a few wisps of cirrus clouds moving quickly east across southern NC. A developing warm front across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians will spread a band of enhanced moisture in the mid levels across VA and the Carolinas tonight. This will result in some patches of mid and high clouds tonight. West to northwest winds will relax this evening and should become very light/calm after midnight. It's not completely clear how much the cloud cover could inhibit radiational cooling conditions, but generally expect clouds and winds to be limited enough to produce another chilly morning. The latest statistical temperature guidance trended slightly warmer for overnight minimums. Lows will generally range in the lower 30s with a few of the typically colder spots falling into the upper 20s. In general, expect temps to be close but a degree or two warmer on Tuesday morning compared to Sunday morning. The frost/freeze program is still in effect for Cumberland and Sampson counties where the growing season still persists (see RDUPNSRAH issued at 920 am for more details). Will maintain the frost advisory that's in effect for tonight for these counties as lows tonight will likely approach 32 but widespread 32 or lower temperatures are not expected. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 212 AM Monday... ...A moderation in temperatures by 10 degrees expected Tuesday... The center of the high pressure is progged to shift offshore Tuesday. The aforementioned WAA aloft will mix down to the surface on Tuesday. After some early morning patchy high cloudiness, expect mainly sunny skies and milder temperatures. Highs generally in the lower to mid 60s from NW to S. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected Tuesday night with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 235 PM Monday... Sely low-level flow between the offshore Bermuda high and our next cold front that will cross the Carolinas Thursday night will result in unseasonably warmth during the mid week period. Highs Thursday are expected to top out from the lower 70s across the north to mid/upper 70s across the souther counties, which is 10-15 degrees above climatology. The clipper-style shortwave trough propelling the cold front into the forecast area Thursday night will yield only modest moisture return and weak lift across the area. As such, do not expect much in the way of a wetting rain or relief from the expanding abnormally dry(D0)and moderate drought(D1)conditions. Expect markedly colder temps behind the front, with below normal temps of generally 5-10 degrees continuing into the weekend as a cold +1030 mb sfc high builds east into the mid-Atlantic region. Our next weather system, which models are hinting at some possibly nearby coastal cyclogenesis, will likely bring our next chance for rain late Sunday night and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM Monday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. High pressure will build into the area this evening and settle across the eastern Carolinas tonight. A region of increased mid level moisture will spread across the area later this afternoon and especially tonight. This will result in some patchy high clouds this afternoon and a belt of SCT to BKN mid clouds overnight with the clouds likely thickest across the north. Skies will be mainly clear on Tuesday. West to northwest winds at around 10kts with some gusts up to 20ks will relax later this afternoon. Light winds this evening will become very light to calm after midnight. Light southwest winds at 4 to 8kts are expected on Tuesday. Outlook: VFR conditions are generally expected during the period. As the high pressure system shifts offshore, low-level moist flow will increase which may result in some areas of stratus across the western Piedmont around daybreak Wednesday. A better chance of some late night/early morning fog or stratus is expected on Thursday morning. Another cold front will lead to a chance of sub-VFR conditions in showers Thursday night, especially across the north. VFR conditions should return on Friday and continue into Saturday. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Blaes