217 FXUS62 KJAX 140750 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 250 AM EST Sun Nov 14 2021 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... High pressure center settles west of the region over the North Gulf Coast today, then a secondary dry cold frontal boundary tracks through the SE US this evening, pushing into SE GA after midnight, then into NE FL by sunrise Monday morning. Overall sunny/clear skies are expected through the period with below normal temps. Highs reaching the middle 60s across SE GA today, with upper 60s across NE FL as surface winds speeds average around 10 mph from the West-Northwest. Dry cold frontal passage tonight is expected to keep West-Northwest winds slightly elevated around 5 mph inland and around 10 mph along the Atlantic coast, but under clear skies still expect Min Temps to fall into the upper 30s/near 40 degrees across inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley of inland North FL, but the slightly elevated wind speeds and drier airmass pushing into the region should prevent much in the way of any significant frost formation, so no Frost Advisory is expected. Closer to the Atlantic Coast and for the rest of NE FL expect lows in the lower to middle 40s. .SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Cool and dry conditions prevail for early next week with surface high pressure dominating the area. High pressure centered over the Tennessee River Valley on Monday will shift eastward and extend into southeast Georgia Monday night. Clear skies, cold air advection and calm winds could lead to patchy frost developing late Monday night/early Tuesday morning across portions of inland southeast Georgia. Light onshore flow begins to develop on Tuesday as the surface high builds offshore of the Carolina Atlantic coast, developing a weak coastal trough offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast into Tuesday night. Returning light onshore flow will begin to increase low level moisture and moderate temperatures to the area. Below normal temperatures continue through the short term. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s to low 70s then become upper 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday. Lows on Monday night fall into the upper 30s across inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee River Valley to the 40s elsewhere. Tuesday night lows increase into the mid 40s to low 50s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]... A warming and moistening trend continues as surface high pressure shifts farther offshore of the mid-Atlantic seaboard maintaining onshore flow. A few showers may move onshore into Flagler county on Thursday, otherwise dry conditions prevail. Temperatures increase to above normal with highs in the 70s to potentially around 80 (Marion county) and lows in the 50s. A weakening front moves through the area on Friday as strong high pressure builds to our north increasing onshore flow Friday into Saturday. Breezy onshore flow will bring a chance of coastal showers Friday and Saturday with chances spreading inland on Saturday. Due to increased cloud cover, high temperatures cool back to slightly below normal in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows around normal in the upper 40s to the around 60. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] VFR conds through the period with SKC and light NW winds tonight becoming West around 8 knots or so during the afternoon on Sunday. && .MARINE... High pressure remains west of the local waters today with offshore flow (W-NW) in the 10-15 knot range. Dry cold frontal boundary approaches tonight and crosses the local waters early Monday morning and expect a brief surge of W-NW winds close to 20 knots late tonight/early Monday, but for now will keep forecast at 15-20 knots with likely Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines needed for both nearshore/offshore waters. Offshore flow weakens on Monday, then becomes onshore Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as High pressure builds north of the waters, with wind speeds generally in the 10-15 knot range and seas of 3-5 ft with no headlines expected. Rip Currents: Offshore flow combined with surf/breakers of 2 ft or less will lead to a low risk of rip currents through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 38 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 46 67 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 42 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 45 67 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 67 41 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 68 41 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM EST this morning for Appling- Bacon-Coffee-Jeff Davis. AM...None. &&