874 FXUS63 KBIS 121811 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1211 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Observed visibilities in the James River valley are beginning to improve as of midday, with most in the 4SM+ range at 18 UTC, so we allowed the Winter Weather Advisory to expire. Otherwise, we only made minor changes to the forecast with this update cycle based on observed trends. Stratus is eroding over western ND at midday, and winds are slowly decreasing area-wide as the deep, occluded low in Wisconsin at this hour gradually exits the region. UPDATE Issued at 919 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 We extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 18 UTC for the James River valley given continued wind gusts to ~40 kt and visibilities being reduced to 2SM or less as of mid morning. In contrast, we let the Wind Advisory for southwest and south central ND, and the Winter Weather Advisory in the north central all expire as winds are beginning to diminish as the pressure gradient is beginning to relax in those areas. Otherwise, changes with this update were to continue a slight chance of snow over central ND and increase sky cover in western ND through the morning in respect to observed trends. UPDATE Issued at 557 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Strong winds, snow, and blowing snow continue to linger across the area early this morning as a low pressure system slowly moves out of the region. Winds across the southwest and south central continue to see either sustained winds, wind gusts, or both above Wind Advisory this morning. Decided to extend the Wind Advisory in these areas to account for these lingering winds and any potential blowing snow with them. Meanwhile light snow and blowing snow continues across central and eastern portions. Overall this remains on track to the original forecast. Radar trends are starting show perhaps a diminishing trend. If this trend continues the Winter Weather Advisory should be timed well. Will keep this going and continue to monitor for any needed updates. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 414 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Gusty winds and snow with blowing snow look to continue this morning before diminishing this afternoon. A wrapped up upper low continues to bring snow and strong winds early this morning across much of central and eastern portions, with some strong winds still lingering across the southwest and south central. Currently a Wind Advisory remains for these southwest and south central portions until 6 AM CST. Most of these areas should see winds starting to diminish around or shortly after then, although some 850 mb forecasts indicate winds could be elevated through the morning. Will continue to monitor for any needed extensions. Meanwhile, snow and blowing snow continue to linger across central and eastern portions. Overall look for snow to diminish later this morning, although blowing snow could linger across the east into the afternoon. Currently a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 9 AM CST for eastern portions. If snow and/or blowing snow continue to shower a lingering trend, this may also need to be extended. Will continue to monitor these trends as well. Otherwise look for a cool day with highs only in the 20s and 30s. Snow and blowing snow from the upper low looks to completely exit the area by early this evening. A developing low pressure clipper type system looks to then set up a warm front across western parts of the state tonight. Slight chances for snow across the west will begin around midnight. As this front builds and moves eastward, a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will all be possible especially across western and central portions. Confidence in precipitation chances and types only remains moderate for the time being. This will need be monitored for any winter weather highlight potential as freezing precipitation could cause impacts to those traveling. Look for cool overnight lows in the teens across the east and 20s in the west for Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 414 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Overall look for a warming and somewhat active pattern to start the long term, with cooling temperatures and mainly dry conditions. A clipper system will push a warm front followed by a weak cold front across the region on Saturday. Precipitation types look to be tricky with this system as max temperatures aloft look to start out favorable for sleet, followed by freezing rain, followed by all rain for much of western and central areas. These temperatures look to be just cool enough for mainly snow in the eastern and north central areas. By the end of Saturday morning some minor ice accumulations are possible for these western and central areas. Saturday afternoon could then see freezing precipitation switch to rain in these areas, while snow lingers in the north central and east. Snow accumulations in the north central and east could be around 1 to 2 inches. This system could also bring another round of gusty winds, especially across the west and central. Overall those traveling or outdoors on Saturday will want to check the latest forecast and stay tuned for any possible weather or wind highlights. Mild temperatures and a brief break in precipitation then looks to be found Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning will see a similar system attempt to push through the area. This could bring more chances for rain and snow, with perhaps some pockets of freezing rain and sleet at times. Warming temperatures will then be found for the rest of Monday and again on Tuesday. Look for highs generally in the 40s and 50s. A cold front could then push through later Tuesday, possibly bringing some rain and snow to the region and some breezy winds. This front looks to cool temperatures back to more normal readings for the time of year for mid week. A general zonal flow pattern could also bring some breezy westerly winds at times. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021 Stratus over central and parts of western ND at midday will erode this afternoon, so most terminals will see improvement from MVFR or IFR ceilings to VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon. KJMS will see improvement last, with blowing snow gradually ending, but MVFR ceilings persisting into tonight. A warm front will move west to east tonight and Saturday morning, bringing potential light snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Uncertainty in the extent of that wintry mix was too high to include more than a VCSH in the 18 UTC TAFs, but later updates may include greater impacts at some terminals. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...Anglin LONG TERM...Anglin AVIATION...CJS