123 FXUS63 KTOP 111739 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1139 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Key Points: - Windy and cooler today and Friday. - Below normal temperatures through the weekend with a warm-up to begin the new work week. An upper-level low was located over southeastern Saskatchewan and northern North Dakota early this morning with a trough extending through the middle of the CONUS. The surface low and attendant cold front that produced widespread showers and storms last evening have progressed well east of the area with much drier and cooler air filtering in behind these features. A tightening pressure gradient is also present behind that system and has kept breezy west- northwest winds in place overnight with even stronger winds expected during the day today. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30- 35 mph will combine with low relative humidity to create very high fire danger across north central Kansas this afternoon; see the Fire Weather section below for more information. A shortwave rounding the western periphery of the aforementioned upper trough will move through early on Friday bringing a reinforced shot of cold air along with even stronger northwest winds. Sustained winds and gusts could reach Wind Advisory levels Friday afternoon; something to keep an eye on over the next couple of forecast packages. Stronger CAA will keep highs in the 40s across the area, which should limit fire weather concerns Friday thanks to higher relative humidity. Winds begin to weaken by late Friday as a surface high pressure builds in. Decreasing winds and clear skies will allow for good radiative cooling and temperatures will fall into the 20s Saturday morning. Below normal temps last through the weekend with another shortwave pushing a cold front through the area Saturday night into Sunday. Consensus from ensembles is for this wave to pass through dry, although some members (including the 00z ECMWF) show enough moisture to generate some QPF across the area. With predictability remaining low, will keep a dry forecast going for now. Southerly flow and rising heights return on Monday and Tuesday setting up a nice warmup to start the new work week. Highs will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s on Monday with some 70s possible on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation come during the middle of next week with another shortwave/cold front passing through. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 TAFs remain wind-driven as VFR conditions will continue throughout the period. Winds will stay mainly westerly at 12-15 kts this afternoon and again tomorrow morning, with stronger gusts. Winds overnight will be a bit weaker and less gusty, though still strong enough to keep out any mention of LLWS, despite a 45 kt northwesterly LLJ. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Strong west-northwest winds and low relative humidity values will lead to very high fire danger across north central Kansas this afternoon. West-northwest winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 30-35 mph are expected along with RH values falling into the 20-25 percent range. HRRR and RAP soundings show very deep mixing with dewpoints dropping into the low teens across north central Kansas, so the potential exists for RH values to be lower than what is currently forecast. The main area of concern is along and west of a line from Washington to Chapman especially since this area missed out on the bulk of precipitation from yesterday's system. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan