712 FXUS63 KJKL 092045 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 345 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1135 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2021 Skies were mostly sunny to sunny late this morning, but high clouds were starting to increase from the west. Thicker high and some mid level clouds are upstream and this thicker cloud cover is still expected to work across the region this afternoon into the overnight hours. Minor adjustments have been made based on observations and trends, although this led to no substantial changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 722 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2021 The forecast is on track so far this morning. What little fog formed overnight should dissipate by 13 or 14Z today. Another warm and pleasant day is on tap for the residents of eastern Kentucky. The latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. The grid updates have been sent out to the remote wed servers and NDFD. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2021 A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to bring light winds and dry conditions to eastern Kentucky for the next couple of days. After starting off the day with mostly clear skies, cloud cover will be on the increase through out the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours, as a weak shortwave aloft moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. By this afternoon we may see mostly cloudy skies that will persist through late this evening. The clouds should gradually scatter out late tonight, as the shortwave moves off to the east of the area. Mostly clear skies will again be on tap for Wednesday, as high pressure continues to be the dominant influence on our weather. Late night and early morning patchy valley fog will continue to be possible across the area as well through Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will persist for the next couple of days, as southerly winds remain in place and high pressure remains parked overhead. High temperatures the next couple of days should max out in the upper 60s and lower 70s, making it feel more like spring than fall. Tonights lows will not be bad either, with min readings in the 40s expected across the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2021 The extended will kick off unsettled as a cold front approaches from the west. In the upper levels, an amplified wave pattern is in place. A broad, negatively tilted, trough sits across the Upper Plains and runs down and through the Western Gulf of Mexico. Ridging resides along the Northeast and across the West Coast. At the surface, an organized 990mb low will sit across Eastern Wisconsin and into the Upper Great Lakes by 12z Thursday. Attached is a cold front running through the Mississippi Valley and down into South- Central Texas. Guidance is in pretty good agreement with likely to widespread showers expected into the afternoon and evening hours. A tightening pressure gradient along and ahead of the front will also create gusty winds, particularly along the western half of the CWA where a 40-50kt LLJ lies. As a result, Thursday will likely be breezy with winds 10-15 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Any lingering showers should exit into Friday morning as the trough pivots eastward. A second cold front will meander through late Friday, providing an additional blast of cool air to Eastern Kentucky. Guidance has continued to trend downward with precipitation with this next front, so have steered dry Friday night and into Saturday. A shortwave will then pivot around the upper level low, now in Southeast Canada, bringing a chance for showers Sunday afternoon/evening and then transitioning to a slight chance of rain/snow mix overnight as temps fall below freezing. Given daytime surface temperatures and limited time at to below freezing overnight, not expecting any impacts. A slight chance of lingering rain showers will be possible through Monday, before high pressure edges into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday, clearing things out. Guidance does offer differing variations with this early week wave, as the ECMWF is the most aggressive with PoPs versus the operation GFS. Given the differences and time in the forecast, have leaned on the blend here. Sensible weather will generally start with above average temperatures and likely to widespread showers Thursday; cooling and clearing to near average on Friday. With the second front into Saturday, temperatures will be much cooler, which will last through the end of the period. Highs Saturday through early next week will range from the mid and upper 40s with overnight lows in the low 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1149 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2021 A shortwave trough passing across the Great Lakes and OH Valley region along with a sfc baroclinic zone sagging toward the OH Valley will lead to a continued increase in clouds early in the period. Mainly high and few mid level clouds will cross the region later this afternoon and into the overnight, moving east of the area by the 9Z to 12Z period. However, mainly VFR will prevail through the period as sfc high pressure dominates in the lower levels and weak upper level ridging works in late in the period. Winds will be out of the southwest to begin the period in the 5 to 10 KT range, before decreasing around or after 0Z and becoming more southerly later in the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...JP