618 FXUS62 KFFC 091928 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 228 PM EST Tue Nov 9 2021 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/... Dry, unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the short term as next weather system approaches at the start of the long term period. High pressure will remain over the southeast through early Wednesday then begin retreating to the east as long wave trough axis pushes into the region by late Wednesday night. Southerly flow ahead of the front will draw Gulf moisture into the state, increasing PoPs to Slight/Chance over central/southeastern Georgia by sunrise Thursday. Winds will remain light and southerly/southwesterly through the period. High clouds will move in later today and then diminish somewhat through the day Wednesday. High temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s again Wednesday. With the overnight cloud cover tonight and the addition of the higher low-level moisture Thursday morning, expect low temperatures to moderate through the period, with temps in the 40s Wednesday morning and 50s Thursday morning. 31 && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/... Rain chances return to north and central GA Thursday into early Friday morning as a cold front sweeps across the state. The GFS is progging PWATs to surge to 1.00" to 1.25" as Gulf and Atlantic moisture spreads across the area ahead of and along the front. The daily mean PWAT based on sounding climo is 0.6" so there is a potential for instances of moderate to heavy rain with the FROPA. GFS-progged instability remains unimpressive with MUCAPE <300 J/kg across much of the CWA. However, have introduced a slight chance of thunder on Thursday afternoon mainly across north GA, where models suggest that marginal mid-level lapse rates around 6 deg. C/km will be possible. No rain is on tap for Friday through Sunday as dry air settles in behind the cold front. That said, the CWA will remain beneath the upper-level trough through this time frame, with the flow on the backside of the trough bringing an added punch of dry air and CAA through the day Saturday. A shortwave is progged to dive across the Upper Midwest and OH River Valley over the course of Sunday, though with the dry air already in place across the CWA, it looks like the best shot at precip with this system will be across far north GA (closest to the moisture field associated with said system). For now, have just slight chance PoPs across far north GA on Sunday night into early Monday morning, and do not have accumulating rainfall in the forecast. Isolated locales (mainly in the higher terrain of northeast GA) are currently forecast to drop to freezing during this time frame, but am maintaining liquid precip type in the grids as uncertainty is quite high 6-7 days out. The upper-level flow will transition from troughing to quasi- zonal flow/weak ridging over the eastern CONUS heading into midweek, while at the surface high pressure and dry conditions will be the rule. Martin && AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions are expected through the period. High clouds will move in over the next few hours, with most significant coverage late tonight and early Wednesday before improving. Winds will be light and generally SW, with speeds 5kt or less. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 49 76 51 66 / 0 0 10 70 Atlanta 50 75 54 67 / 0 0 10 70 Blairsville 45 72 47 59 / 0 0 10 70 Cartersville 47 74 53 67 / 0 0 5 70 Columbus 49 76 56 72 / 0 0 10 60 Gainesville 50 74 52 62 / 0 0 10 70 Macon 46 76 54 71 / 0 0 10 60 Rome 46 75 52 68 / 0 0 5 70 Peachtree City 46 75 52 68 / 0 0 20 60 Vidalia 47 75 55 73 / 0 0 5 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...31