148 FXUS63 KJKL 072359 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 659 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 659 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2021 Quiet conditions and clear skies dominate across east Kentucky as high pressure maintains control over the region. Temperatures in the deeper valleys are dropping quickly, so did attempt to try and get hourly temp grids in line with the recent trends. Overall though, the forecast remains on track and mainly stuck to blending in recent obs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 340 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2021 Beautiful day across eastern KY, with mostly clear skies and temps in the lower 60s this afternoon. Upper level and surface low off the SE coast will continue to pull eastward away from the coast. Meanwhile, upper level ridging and surface high pressure will continue to be in control of our weather during the short term part of the forecast. We will continue the slow moderating trend with both the daytime highs and nightly lows. The models are still generally too high with dew points, so will continue to go towards the lower end of guidance for the next couple days. Overnight lows tonight in the upper 20s in the sheltered valleys, and lower 30s elsewhere. Some patchy river valley fog is expected in the typical locations. Another mainly clear day expected on Monday. We'll tick temps up another 5-7 degrees with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s. Most locations will remain above freezing overnight with low temps Tuesday morning in the mid to upper 30s in the sheltered valleys, and upper 30s to lower 40s along the ridgetops. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 518 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2021 Plentiful sunshine and a mild air mass will result in above normal temperatures for the first half of the period. A strong cold front will bring the next rain threat later Thursday and Thursday night and will be followed by lower chances for rain and even some light snow, especially over the higher elevations, heading through next weekend. Model agreement is good through 12z Thursday but diverges thereafter. Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will slow shift east of the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, an amplifying trough will descend the Rockies. Southern stream energy within the trough will support low pressure developing over the southern Plains late Wednesday. This low will quickly lift NNE toward the Duluth, MN on Thursday as it deepens to sub-990 mb. Ahead of this system, a 35-45 knot 850 mb warm conveyor belt jet will lift across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The current expectation is that the thicker clouds and rain threat will hold off until after 18z when a powerful cold front pushes across the forecast area and that should allow for some of those stronger winds to mix down from late morning into the afternoon. Theta-e gradient fields show the cold front hanging up along the Appalachians Friday morning. There is fairly good agreement that another low will develop along this boundary but the location and timing details differ among the models. After that wave passes, the cold front will depart to the east allowing the deep upper level trough and a sub 0C 850 mb airmass settle in over the Ohio Valley during the weekend. With that colder air and multiple hard- to-time waves rotating through the trough, we are looking at some very light rain and snow shower chances on Saturday and Sunday. In sensible terms, warm, dry, and mostly sunny days and partly cloudy, cool nights will prevail through Wednesday. Highs within a few degrees of 70 can be expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday while lows range from the mid 30s to mid 40s, coolest northeast valleys to thermal belt ridges. As the front approaches Wednesday night and Thursday, a tightening pressure gradient and daytime mixing will lead to wind gusts peaking in the 20-30 mph range Thursday afternoon. Rain showers arrive west of I-75 during the mid afternoon and quickly overspread the area. The more widespread rain exits to the east by Friday morning. Some clearing may occur over the northwestern half of the forecast area for a time on Friday before likely yielding to more cloud cover when the the next low pressure wave rides along the boundary. Over the southeast CWA, shower chances likely hold on due to the stalled boundary. Once that low pressure and cold front shifts east, spotty rain/snow showers and blustery west to northwest breeze will continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2021 VFR conditions continue to prevail this evening, thanks to high pressure dominating across the region. Skies are expected to remain clear, with light winds. Patchy fog in the river valleys is once again expected overnight. It should largely stay confined to the river valleys, with a possible exception being KSME during the early morning hours Monday. VFR conditions are expected to return after the fog burns off around 13/14Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAS SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...HAS