751 FXUS65 KGJT 072340 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 440 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 207 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A series of weak shortwaves will brush northern sections of the forecast area through Monday as a frontal boundary remains just north of the area. Isolated showers are possible overnight across the higher terrain of northeastern Utah as the first weak shortwave moves northeast across Wyoming. A second shortwave will bring scattered showers over northeastern Utah by Monday afternoon which will spread across northwestern Colorado before diminishing during the evening hours. Little precipitation is expected with these showers. Elsewhere, expect warm conditions to continue into Monday with increasing high clouds and gusty southwest winds over favored north-facing slopes and higher elevations. Some cooler air will push south across the area on Monday with high temperatures expected to be around 10 degrees cooler than today north of Interstate 70, with only slight cooling across the south. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 207 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 A stronger shortwave will move into the Great Basin region on Tuesday with southwest gradient bringing gusty southwest winds across the higher terrain and favored valley locations. Shower activity will develop across western portions of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon and spread across the remainder of the forecast area by Tuesday evening. The best focus for precipitation will be Tuesday night and Wednesday favoring the northern and central mountains of western Colorado. Snow levels will lower to 7000 feet across the north and 8000 feet across the south by Wednesday morning and will lower further on Wednesday behind the trough passage. Model-model QPF consistency is low, with the GFS having a wetter solution, but there is the potential for winter weather advisory impacts for the northern and central mountains of western Colorado. Ensemble forecasts show the trough will move east of the Rockies on Wednesday and amplify as energy drops south from Canada, and develop into a strong closed low over the Dakotas by Thursday. Northwest flow behind this system will keep temperatures in the seasonable range with northwest-favored orographic snow showers continuing across the northern and central mountains of Colorado late Wednesday through Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build across the western States by Friday and continue through the weekend with dry conditions and a slow && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 438 PM MST Sun Nov 7 2021 The gusty winds being reported across the CWA, especially up north, will die down very shortly giving way to a tranquil overnight. High level clouds will continue to move in from the west bringing scattered to broken skies, maybe some overcast skies, overnight and tomorrow. Ceilings will remain well above any ILS breakpoints and no precip is expected. A few afternoon gusts are possible but should only reach 20 to 25kts. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPM LONG TERM...MPM AVIATION...TGR