575 FXUS64 KLIX 072333 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 533 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .AVIATION (00Z TAF DISCUSSION)...The main concern will be the risk of some fog forming at KHUM, KBTR, and KHDC between 10z and 14z. This fog development is highly conditional on temperatures cooling into the lower 40s at these terminals. If this cooling occurs as expected some areas of dense fog could form. As a result, have TEMPO groups in place at KBTR and KHDC with IFR or lower conditions. At KHUM, have a bit more confidence in the fog and placed a prevailing group from 12z to 14z with IFR and lower conditions. Warming temperatures after 14z will quickly mix out the boundary layer and clear the fog. Outside of the fog threat, VFR conditions are expected at all of the terminals through the period. PG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)... A mid/upper level high pressure ridge will continue to move slowly east across the central U.S. states and Mississippi Valley/western Gulf Coast region into Monday with a surface high pressure ridge and deep layer dry air remaining over the forecast area. Mid and upper level heights will fall Tuesday, Wednesday and Wednesday night as the shortwave ridge moves well to the east and a shortwave trough moves quickly east from the Rockies through the Plains towards the Mississippi Valley. Generally clear/sunny skies are expected to continue tonight/Monday through Tuesday morning before clouds increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. No rain is expected until a few showers develop across portions of the coastal waters Wednesday night, so this is mainly a temperature forecast. Have stayed fairly close to the NBM highs, but did lower some of the lows a few degrees in some areas where drainage and strong radiational cooling is not typically handled well by the NBM guidance as was evident with this morning's lows. LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)... The models are in fair agreement with the stronger shortwave trough that moves through the central Gulf Coast region Friday night or Saturday, but run to run consistency is not great and has trended slower. Confidence on the timing is still low, however the models are fairly consistent showing some widespread light to moderate rainfall occurring during the Thursday afternoon through Friday evening periods. Have still indicated a slight chance of thunderstorms for portions of the forecast area for Thursday afternoon through Friday with some instability expected. Ensemble temperature guidance continues to have more spread as the end of the week and weekend progress due to both timing differences and the trajectory of the strongest cold air advection. At this point, a cold front moving through by late Friday is expected to drop temperatures back below normal/seasonal averages with Saturday and Saturday night looking like the coldest period at this point. AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail most of the period through Monday. The exception is at KBTR, KHDC and KMCB where the forecast includes a 1-2 hour period of MVFR to IFR conditions in BR between 10-14z. MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to build into the central Gulf coast region from the north tonight and Tuesday. The pressure gradient has relaxed today resulting in mostly light winds over the inner coastal waters and lakes and north to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots over offshore waters. These winds will remain about the same tonight into Monday then become easterly about 10 knots or less on Tuesday. High pressure will shift east towards the Atlantic coast Wednesday while low pressure and a cold front advance across the Plains and upper to mid Mississippi Valley. Winds are expected to veer around to southeast to south Wednesday into Thursday with speeds up to 10 to 15 knots. Some showers could accompany the next cold front by Thursday or Thursday night then winds will shift to northerly at speeds of 15 to 25 knots by Friday and Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 41 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 42 74 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 39 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 49 73 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 44 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 40 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$