560 
FXUS63 KILX 072322
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
522 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Mild and mostly dry weather continues through the middle of the 
week. A strong system will send a cold front through the area later 
this week, bringing precipitation chances and much cooler 
temperatures for the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) 
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Surface analysis this afternoon depicts high pressure stretched from 
the Gulf coast northward into the Ohio River Valley with an area of 
low pressure positioned over the Northern Plains states. Upper 
ridging aloft will spill into the eastern CONUS early this week as a 
few shortwaves moving across southern Canada work to flatten the 
flow. Mild weather will continue here locally with daytime highs 
through the early week period topping out in the 60s with overnight 
lows in the 40s.

Mostly dry conditions are expected during the short term period. 
However, a weak shortwave trough will send a cold front through the 
area later on Tuesday bringing an increase in cloud cover and the 
potential for a few isolated rain showers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) 
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

A brief period of upper ridging builds back over the area going into 
Wednesday as a trough works into the Plains states. At the surface 
high pressure will get pushed east as a surface low spins up over 
the Northern Plains and tracks into the Upper Mississippi River 
Valley as it strengthens. A cold front will stretch from the low's 
center to the Gulf of Mexico and work east into the Midwest states 
later Wednesday night through Thursday, bringing our next shot at 
widespread precipitation. Due to the rapid intensification and 
dynamics of the system, there may be some isolated thunder at times 
across western areas late Wednesday night. However, the better 
instability looks to stay west of the area. Temperatures will be 
warm enough for ptypes to remain in the form of rain. However, as 
colder air starts filtering in and the backside of the low swings 
through the area on Friday, a few scattered rain/snow showers will 
be possible at times.

Much cooler temperatures filter back into the area behind the front 
for the end of the week into next weekend as northwest flow sets up 
aloft. High temperatures look to range from 10 to 15 degrees cooler 
than normal during this period. Occasional chances for scattered 
showers look possible going into next weekend as a few shortwaves 
move through northwest flow and steepen low-level lapse rates. 
Canadian high pressure then sinks southward into the area by the 
latter half of next weekend int early next week, acting to dry 
things out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

High pressure will remain anchored along the Appalachian 
Mountains through the period with a modest south breeze and VFR 
conditions across central Illinois. Marginal LLWS is possible 
overnight with winds between 1000-2000 feet increasing to 36-40 
kt. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss