927 
FXUS63 KFGF 072321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
521 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Will see another quiet overnight and will continue with the low
impact weather through the short term. Temps remain above normal
with lows tonight around 30 with highs around 50 on Monday. These
temps are 5 to 10 degrees above second week of November normals.

High pressure will slide across the area with some upper level
clouds expected across the southern half of the area tomorrow with
the mid level baroclinic zone and some upper support. Most likely
given the dry low levels of some virga showers can be expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Several things come to mind when we look at the long term forecast. 
First is cold temperatures, second is the potential for the first 
accumulating snow of the season! We'll get to the potential snow in 
a second, as temperatures are the prelude to this mid week system. 
Temperatures slowly begin to drop as we head through the long term 
with the 40s Monday and Tuesday, before bottoming out in the low to 
mid 30s there after. This will be thanks to a low pressure system 
working its way across the Northern Plains bringing down the cold 
air.

Now lets get to the topic thats on everyones mind. What is this mid 
week storm system??

Let me answer that for you...A low pressure system that makes its way 
into the plains mid week brings moisture in from the Pacific NW, 
which is limited. Track of the system between ensembles and their 
runs has varied over the past several day along with the exact 
moisture content. Tracks have slowly begun to converge somewhere 
over the central to Northern Plains. This indicates the chance of 
precipitation for our neck of the woods. The low pressure digs into 
the plains and ensembles indicate a surge of cold air through the 
mid levels limited any melting potential of snow through the low to 
mid layers. Surface temperature dictate the precipitation type for 
eastern ND and west central/NW MN. The system looks to start out as 
rain and transition to snow as temperature drop to at or below 
freezing by Thursday and into Friday. How much rain falls, road 
temperatures, and the transition to snow determines snow 
accumulation potential across the area.

Cluster analysis continues to show low confidence in track as 
deviations are noted between precipitation amounts for our area. 
Probabilities of exceeding 1 inch of snow are 60-70%, with a worst 
case scenario of 10-20% chance of exceeding 6 inches. Better chances 
lie north of I 94 where temperatures look to fall to the freezing 
mark first. Road temperatures play a role, with a majority of roads 
still above freezing thanks to the warm temperatures this weekend 
and the past several days which could hinder accumulations on the 
roadways at times. Grassy surfaces look to see the best chance any 
accumulation.

It looks like this could be the first accumulating snow of the 
season, but just how much, the track, and moisture content continues 
to be uncertain at this time. We will continue to monitor the latest 
ensemble guidance over the next several day, but it looks like some 
type of impacts are possible especially the further north you
head.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period
across eastern ND and northwest MN. A slow moving frontal zone
eventually moves over the region west to east before stalling.
Winds should shift from the northwest o to the west behind this,
with most values 5-10kt prevailing. Westerly gusts 15-20kt are 
possible during the daytime period Monday in northeast ND behind 
this front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...DJR