590 FXUS63 KPAH 072258 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 458 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 457 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 High pressure aloft building over the region today will continue to build east of the area, resulting in west southwesterly flow aloft Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will gradually build south of the region, allowing south winds to increase Monday. Tuesday into Tuesday night a short wave trough will dive southeast into the Great Lakes, and a weak cold front will attempt to push toward the I-64 corridor. The general consensus is that the boundary will remain north of our area through 12Z Wednesday, so the forecast will remain dry. The presence of the surface high over the northern Gulf Coast will eliminate any significant low- level moisture return to the region despite our south winds. As for temperatures, we will continue to play the larger diurnal range by going on the cool side of guidance for lows tonight and Monday night and going on the warm side for highs Monday. Fairly thick high clouds are expected over most of the region Tuesday which should hold temperatures down a few degrees compared to Monday, but they will still be way above normal for November. After 5 consecutive nights of freezing conditions somewhere over the region, we might just keep the entire area above freezing tonight. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 208 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 A strong fall storm system will develop over the north central states later this week, however impacts for our region still appear very minor, if there are any at all. The main effect of the system will be the transition from pleasant daytime temps Wed to chilly weather next weekend. Widespread rainfall will accompany the transition. Model agreement is good Wednesday, when a 500 mb shortwave ridge will move across the Ohio Valley. This ridge is expected to keep us dry, at least during the day. South winds on the back side of a surface high will raise temps well into the 60s to perhaps 70, depending on the thickness of arriving high cloudiness. On Thursday, a 500 mb trough will deepen over the northern and central Plains. This system will likely develop into a deep closed low over the upper Mississippi Valley by Friday. The associated surface low will deepen until the system occludes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday night. The trailing occluded front is forecast by most of the models to move east across the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. A narrow corridor of surface dew points in the 50s will precede the front. Given the strong upper-level dynamics that are likely to accompany the system, moisture appears sufficient for a widespread moderate rainfall. Pops will be highest on Thurs. Cooler air will arrive Thurs night and Friday. Though the occluded front will be to our east, the models vary on the timing of the 500 mb trough. Showers could linger into Friday east of the Mississippi River. Noticeably cooler air will arrive, with highs in the 50s Friday and a gusty northwest wind. Model agreement fades rather quickly next weekend. Model differences increase regarding the speed of the 500 mb trough and its strength. A rather large cluster of models lag the 500 mb trough axis to our west on Saturday. A few showers cannot be ruled out Saturday, mainly east of the Mississippi. It will be a chilly day, with highs mainly in the 40s. The 500 mb trough should be far enough east on Sunday for dry weather in our area. Depending on how quickly the 500 mb trough deamplifies, highs could moderate into the 50s Sunday, or not at all. && .AVIATION... Issued at 457 PM CST Sun Nov 7 2021 VFR conditions are expected for this TAF issuance. Strong subsidence will suppress all cloud coverage, save for some passing cirrus activity overnight. Winds tonight will be calm or very light from the south. After 16z steady S-SW winds of 5-10 kts can be expected, with occasional gusts up to 15 kts at CGI, MVN, and EVV through 22z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...DWS